Targeting Community-Based Palliative and Serious Illness Care Resources: Challenges of More Stringent Diagnostic Criteria for Prospective Enrollment.

For patients with serious illnesses, one aim of palliative care services is to reduce the frequency and severity of hospital-based episodes of care. Since hospital-alternative palliative care may consume costly resources, providers need to efficiently target high-intensity services toward those most at risk for such adverse episodes of care. Our objective was to investigate progressively more restrictive diagnosis-based indications of serious illness as used to prospectively identify patients with higher average rates of hospitalization. We designed an observational cohort quality improvement study using historical Medicare claims records to evaluate diagnostic inclusion criteria for targeting palliative and serious illness care resources. We first isolated a Seriously Ill Population (SIP) and then defined More SIP and Most SIP subgroups. Our primary outcome measure was the 2019 acute-care count of hospitalizations for patients in the SIP, More SIP, and Most SIP subgroups, respectively. The More SIP and Most SIP subgroups exhibited higher hospitalization rates. However, they also excluded progressively more seriously ill patients who did experience hospitalizations. In addition, almost half of the Most SIP subgroup were not hospitalized at all, despite having an average hospitalization rate greater than one. Allocating resources (personnel and services) toward reducing hospitalizations when almost half of the targeted population never goes to the hospital could result in unnecessary expenditures and exclude patients that could potentially benefit. Engaging community-based services to detect changes in status could provide supplemental indications of when and for whom to target palliative care resources.