Wang Zinuoqi, Zhang Guofeng, Ma Xiaojing, Wang Ruixian
School of Economics, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China.
Research Base for Scientific-Technological Innovation and Regional Economic Sustainable Development of Hebei Province, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China.
Entropy (Basel). 2024 Jun 30;26(7):569. doi: 10.3390/e26070569.
Investigating the significant "roles" within financial complex networks and their stability is of great importance for preventing financial risks. On one hand, this paper initially constructs a complex network model of the stock market based on mutual information theory and threshold methods, combined with the closing price returns of stocks. It then analyzes the basic topological characteristics of this network and examines its stability under random and targeted attacks by varying the threshold values. On the other hand, using systemic risk entropy as a metric to quantify the stability of the stock market, this paper validates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as a widespread, unexpected event on network stability. The research results indicate that this complex network exhibits small-world characteristics but cannot be strictly classified as a scale-free network. In this network, key roles are played by the industrial sector, media and information services, pharmaceuticals and healthcare, transportation, and utilities. Upon reducing the threshold, the network's resilience to random attacks is correspondingly strengthened. Dynamically, from 2000 to 2022, systemic risk in significant industrial share markets significantly increased. From a static perspective, the period around 2019, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, experienced the most drastic fluctuations. Compared to the year 2000, systemic risk entropy in 2022 increased nearly sixtyfold, further indicating an increasing instability within this complex network.
研究金融复杂网络中的重要“角色”及其稳定性对于防范金融风险至关重要。一方面,本文首先基于互信息理论和阈值方法,结合股票收盘价收益率,构建了股票市场的复杂网络模型。然后分析了该网络的基本拓扑特征,并通过改变阈值来考察其在随机攻击和针对性攻击下的稳定性。另一方面,本文使用系统风险熵作为衡量股票市场稳定性的指标,验证了作为广泛、意外事件的新冠疫情对网络稳定性的影响。研究结果表明,该复杂网络具有小世界特征,但不能严格归类为无标度网络。在这个网络中,关键角色由工业部门、媒体和信息服务、制药和医疗保健、交通运输以及公用事业部门扮演。降低阈值后,网络对随机攻击的恢复力相应增强。动态来看,2000年至2022年期间,重要行业股票市场的系统风险显著增加。从静态角度看,2019年前后受新冠疫情影响,波动最为剧烈。与2000年相比,2022年的系统风险熵增加了近60倍,进一步表明这个复杂网络的不稳定性在加剧。