Miao Qing, Davlasheridze Meri
Department of Public Policy, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York, USA.
Department of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, Texas, USA.
Risk Anal. 2025 Feb;45(2):307-321. doi: 10.1111/risa.16111. Epub 2024 Jul 26.
As extreme weather events like floods and storms continue to increase, it is crucial to examine the degree to which various disaster preparedness and mitigation investments can lower these risks. In this research, we empirically examine the effects of multiple federal disaster aid programs on reducing subsequent flood- and storm-related damages across US coastal states. Our analysis distinguishes aid programs and their funded projects targeting different emergency management functions, including preparedness, nonstructural and structural mitigation, emergency response and protective measures, and rehabilitation of public infrastructure. We construct panel data of more than 1800 US counties over the years 2000-2019 and estimate a fixed-effects model with time-varying county-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We find that disaster aid generally helps mitigate property damages, although this loss-reduction effect varies by program. Among all aid programs, the Emergency Management Performance Grant results in the largest reduction of future flood damages. The Public Assistance grants supporting emergency work are also found to exert a strong effect on risk reduction. We also find that the impacts of disaster aid are higher in coastal counties. Our study is one of the first few examining the resilience implication of disaster aid in coastal counties, and our results underscore the importance of investing in capacity building, contingency planning, and consistency in maintenance.
随着洪水和风暴等极端天气事件持续增加，审视各类备灾和减灾投资能够降低这些风险的程度至关重要。在本研究中，我们实证检验了多个联邦灾害援助项目对降低美国沿海各州后续洪水和风暴相关损失的影响。我们的分析区分了针对不同应急管理职能的援助项目及其资助项目，这些职能包括备灾、非结构性和结构性减灾、应急响应与保护措施，以及公共基础设施修复。我们构建了2000年至2019年期间1800多个美国县的面板数据，并估计了一个包含随时间变化的县级社会经济和人口特征的固定效应模型。我们发现灾害援助总体上有助于减轻财产损失，尽管这种损失减少效应因项目而异。在所有援助项目中，应急管理绩效拨款对未来洪水损失的减少幅度最大。还发现支持应急工作的公共援助拨款对降低风险有显著效果。我们还发现灾害援助在沿海县的影响更大。我们的研究是首批考察灾害援助对沿海县恢复力影响的研究之一，我们的结果强调了投资能力建设、应急规划和维护一致性的重要性。
