USEPA, ORD, NHERL, GED, United States of America.
USEPA, ORD, NHERL, RTP, United States of America.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Aug 1;676:343-355. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.287. Epub 2019 Apr 24.
Floods are becoming increasingly influential in coastal cities due to the intensification of extreme weather events. The impacts of flooding go beyond damages to infrastructure, it also affects human health. During floods, discharge of sewage into streets increases exposure to pathogens causing gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses. A potential strategy for coastal protection during weather hazards is the use of flood protection ecosystem services, but their effectiveness at ameliorating the impact of floods on GI illnesses remain understudied. Here we explore the relationship between extreme rainfall, flood protection ecosystem services, and the occurrence of Medicare claims for gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses in Puerto Rico. We first conducted model averaging to detect variables explaining flood impact for the years (1999-2014), and then used these variables as predictors in a spatio-temporal analysis of GI illness in the same period (1999-2013). Our results show that flood impact varies proportionally with extreme rainfall, and inversely with flood protection ecosystem services, particularly due to the presence of karst soils. The protective effect of karst soils is lost when there is a high percentage of people living in flood prone areas, as suggested by a significant interaction effect between these two variables. In support of our hypotheses, cases of GI illness also spike after extreme rainfall events and are affected by the interaction effect of karst soils and people living in flood prone areas. Our results support the linkage between extreme weather events, flood damages and GI illnesses, and suggests a buffering role of ecosystem services that promote rainfall infiltration. The relevance of these ecosystem services, however, is affected by planning decisions such as residential development in flood prone areas. Our results help inform planning strategies for future weather hazards, accounting for the role of natural and built infrastructure on minimizing flood impacts and human health effects.
由于极端天气事件的加剧，洪水在沿海城市的影响越来越大。洪水的影响不仅限于基础设施的破坏，还会影响人类健康。洪水期间，污水排入街道会增加病原体暴露，导致胃肠道（GI）疾病。在天气灾害期间，沿海保护的一种潜在策略是利用洪水防护生态系统服务，但它们在减轻洪水对胃肠道疾病影响方面的有效性仍有待研究。在这里，我们探讨了极端降雨、洪水防护生态系统服务与波多黎各医疗保险胃肠道（GI）疾病索赔之间的关系。我们首先进行了模型平均，以检测解释 1999-2014 年洪水影响的变量，然后使用这些变量作为同一时期（1999-2013 年）胃肠道疾病的时空分析的预测因子。我们的研究结果表明，洪水影响与极端降雨成正比，与洪水防护生态系统服务成反比，特别是由于喀斯特土壤的存在。当居住在洪水多发地区的人口比例较高时，喀斯特土壤的保护作用就会丧失，这两个变量之间的显著交互作用表明了这一点。为了支持我们的假设，胃肠道疾病的病例也在极端降雨事件后激增，并受到喀斯特土壤和居住在洪水多发地区的人口之间的交互作用的影响。我们的研究结果支持极端天气事件、洪水破坏和胃肠道疾病之间的联系，并表明促进降雨渗透的生态系统服务具有缓冲作用。然而，这些生态系统服务的相关性受到规划决策的影响，例如在洪水多发地区的住宅开发。我们的研究结果有助于为未来的天气灾害制定规划策略提供信息，考虑自然和建筑基础设施在减轻洪水影响和人类健康影响方面的作用。
