Butler Brett J, Sass Emma M, Gamarra Javier G P, Campbell John L, Wayson Craig, Olguín Marcela, Carrillo Oswaldo, Yanai Ruth D
Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Amherst, MA, USA.
Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2024 Jul 27;19(1):22. doi: 10.1186/s13021-024-00267-z.
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is a program established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce carbon emissions from forests in developing countries. REDD+ uses an incentive-based approach whereby participating countries are paid to reduce forest carbon loss and increase carbon storage. Country-level carbon accounting is challenging, and estimates of uncertainty in emission reductions are increasingly required in REDD+ reports. This requirement is hard to meet if countries lack the necessary resources, tools, and capabilities. Some REDD+ programs adjust their payments for the uncertainty reported, which presents a perverse incentive because uncertainties are larger if more sources of uncertainty are reported. We surveyed people involved in REDD+ reporting to assess current capacities and barriers to improving estimates of uncertainty.
Representatives from 27 countries (44% of REDD+ countries at the time of survey implementation) responded to the survey. Nearly all respondents thought it important to include uncertainty in REDD+ reports, but most felt that the uncertainty reporting by their countries was inadequate. Our independent assessment of reports by these countries to the UNFCCC supported this opinion: Most countries reported uncertainty in activity data (91%) but not in emission factors (4-14%). Few countries use more advanced approaches to estimate uncertainty, such as Monte Carlo and Bayesian techniques, and many respondents indicated that they lack expertise, knowledge, or technical assistance. Other barriers include lack of financial resources and appropriate data. Despite these limitations, nearly all respondents indicated a strong desire to improve estimates of uncertainty in REDD+ reports.
The survey indicated that people involved in REDD+ reporting think it highly important to improve estimates of uncertainty in forest carbon accounting. To meet this challenge, it is essential to understand the obstacles countries face in quantifying uncertainty so we can identify where best to allocate efforts and funds. Investments in training and resources are clearly needed to better quantify uncertainty and would likely have successful outcomes given the strong desire for improvement. Tracking the efficacy of programs implemented to improve estimates of uncertainty would be useful for making further refinements.
减少毁林和森林退化所致排放（REDD+）是根据《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）设立的一个项目，旨在减少发展中国家森林的碳排放。REDD+采用基于激励的方法，即向参与国支付费用，以减少森林碳损失并增加碳储存。国家层面的碳核算具有挑战性，并且在REDD+报告中越来越需要对减排不确定性进行估计。如果国家缺乏必要的资源、工具和能力，这一要求很难满足。一些REDD+项目会根据所报告的不确定性调整支付金额，这产生了一种反常的激励，因为报告的不确定性来源越多，不确定性就越大。我们对参与REDD+报告的人员进行了调查，以评估当前的能力以及在改进不确定性估计方面的障碍。
来自27个国家（在调查实施时占REDD+国家的44%）的代表回复了调查。几乎所有受访者都认为在REDD+报告中纳入不确定性很重要，但大多数人认为他们国家的不确定性报告不足。我们对这些国家提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的报告进行的独立评估支持了这一观点：大多数国家报告了活动数据中的不确定性（91%），但没有报告排放因子中的不确定性（4 - 14%）。很少有国家使用更先进的方法来估计不确定性，如蒙特卡洛方法和贝叶斯技术，许多受访者表示他们缺乏专业知识、技能或技术援助。其他障碍包括缺乏财政资源和适当的数据。尽管存在这些限制，但几乎所有受访者都表示强烈希望改进REDD+报告中不确定性的估计。
调查表明，参与REDD+报告的人员认为改进森林碳核算中不确定性的估计非常重要。为应对这一挑战，必须了解各国在量化不确定性方面面临的障碍，以便我们能够确定在哪些方面最适合投入精力和资金。显然需要对培训和资源进行投资，以更好地量化不确定性，鉴于人们对改进的强烈愿望，这可能会取得成功。跟踪为改进不确定性估计而实施的项目的成效，将有助于进一步完善。
