Diogo Iúri, Sillero Neftalí, Capinha César
Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal.
CICGE - Research Centre on GeoSpatial Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal.
Heliyon. 2024 Jul 5;10(13):e34201. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34201. eCollection 2024 Jul 15.
Broadleaf water milfoil () is an emerging invasive alien plant in Europe, and thus a priority for European Union (EU)-level surveillance, monitoring, and eradication. This species is native to North America and threatens aquatic ecosystems by creating dense stands that can fill an entire water body, leading to high economic costs and the loss of native biodiversity. Although its presence in Portugal is not reported, the species has already been established in several European countries, including neighboring Spain. In this study, we assessed the risk of invasion by this species in mainland Portugal by jointly considering environmentally suitable areas and the risk of human-mediated introduction. Environmental suitability was estimated using MaxEnt, which relates the known species distribution to climate, topography, and soil variables. The model achieved a mean area under the curve value of 0.96 ± 0.008 and identified the mean temperature of the warmest quarter as the most relevant variable for explaining the species distribution (67.2 %). Predictions from the model indicated that the peaks of suitability values were distributed mainly in temperate climate regions along central and northern coastal areas in Portugal. The risk of introduction was estimated by mapping and calculating the spatial density of the aquarium stores. Jointly considering environmental suitability and risk of introduction, we observed that hotspots at risk of invasion are concentrated on the Portuguese central and northern coasts and in the two main metropolitan areas, Lisbon and Porto. Several risk hotspots fall within protected areas and sites designated under the EU Habitats Directive, comprising water bodies of high significance for maintaining local vegetation and fauna. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of invasion by this species, namely, surveillance and monitoring efforts confirming its absence in the national territory and preventing its future arrival.
宽叶狐尾藻（）是欧洲一种新出现的外来入侵植物，因此是欧盟层面监测、监控和根除的重点对象。该物种原产于北美，通过形成密集的群落来威胁水生生态系统，这些群落可以填满整个水体，导致高昂的经济成本和本地生物多样性的丧失。尽管在葡萄牙尚未有该物种存在的报告，但它已经在包括邻国西班牙在内的几个欧洲国家定殖。在本研究中，我们通过综合考虑环境适宜区域和人为引入风险，评估了该物种在葡萄牙大陆的入侵风险。使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）估计环境适宜性，该模型将已知的物种分布与气候、地形和土壤变量相关联。该模型的曲线下面积均值为0.96±0.008，并确定最暖季度的平均温度是解释物种分布的最相关变量（67.2%）。模型预测表明，适宜性值的峰值主要分布在葡萄牙中部和北部沿海的温带气候区域。通过绘制和计算水族商店的空间密度来估计引入风险。综合考虑环境适宜性和引入风险，我们发现入侵风险热点集中在葡萄牙中部和北部海岸以及两个主要大都市地区，即里斯本和波尔图。几个风险热点位于根据欧盟《栖息地指令》指定的保护区和地点内，这些地区包括对维持当地植被和动物群具有高度重要意义的水体。因此，有必要采取措施降低该物种的入侵风险，即通过监测和监控工作确认其在该国境内不存在，并防止其未来进入。
