Can green credit policy with dual-carbon targets make highly polluting enterprises "green": A micro-analysis of total factor productivity growth.

Reducing carbon emissions from highly polluting enterprises is crucial to meeting the world's overall carbon emission reduction targets. Green credit policy can be effective in guiding enterprises to reduce their carbon emissions and is essential to achieving the dual-carbon targets. This study uses micro-data from a 2017-2022 follow-up survey of industrial enterprises in China and a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate whether green credit policy aligned with the dual-carbon targets enable highly polluting enterprises to become "green" by reducing emissions. The results show that green credit policy can lead highly polluting enterprises to significantly reduce carbon emissions, and total factor productivity (TFP) growth plays an intermediary role in this transition. The different impact of green credit policy on TFP may impede the greening process for highly polluting enterprises, with this hindering effect exhibiting scale heterogeneity. This study offers empirical evidence for evaluating green credit policy aligned with China's dual-carbon target and provide insights into leveraging green credit policy to advance this process.