A Novel Predictive Model for Acute Kidney Injury Following Surgery of the Aorta.

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) frequently occurs after aortic surgery and has a significant impact on patient outcomes. Early detection or prediction of AKI is crucial for timely interventions. This study aims to develop and validate a novel model for predicting AKI following aortic surgery.

METHODS

We enrolled 156 patients who underwent on-pump aortic surgery in our hospital from February 2023 to April 2023. Postoperative levels of eight cytokines related to macrophage polarization analyzed using a multiplex cytokine assay. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal cytokines to predict AKI. A logistic regression model incorporating the selected cytokines was used for internal validation in combination with a bootstrapping technique. The model's ability to discriminate between cases of AKI and non-AKI was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 156 patients, 109 (69.87%) developed postoperative AKI. Interferon-gamma (IFN- ) and interleukin-4 (IL-4) were identified as candidate AKI predictors. The cytokine-based model including IFN- and IL-4 demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-statistic: 0.90) and good calibration (Brier score: 0.11). A clinical nomogram was generated, and decision curve analysis revealed that the cytokine-based model outperformed the clinical factor-based model in terms of net benefit. Moreover, both IFN- and IL-4 emerged as independent risk factors for AKI. Patients in the second and third tertiles of IFN- and IL-4 concentrations had a significantly higher risk of severe AKI, a higher likelihood of requiring renal replacement therapy, or experiencing in-hospital death. These patients also had extended durations of mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit stays, compared with those in the first tertile (all for group trend 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully established a novel and powerful predictive model for AKI, and demonstrating the significance of IFN- and IL-4 as valuable clinical markers. These cytokines not only predict the risk of AKI following aortic surgery but are also linked to adverse in-hospital outcomes. This model offers a promising avenue for the early identification of high-risk patients, potentially improving clinical decision-making and patient care.