Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0818, Japan; Department of Parasitology, School of Chemistry & Molecular Biosciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
Northside Emergency Veterinary Service, Terrey Hills, NSW 2084, Australia.
Vet Parasitol. 2024 Oct;331:110252. doi: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2024.110252. Epub 2024 Jul 10.
The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, is a tick of much veterinary importance in Australia. Each year, thousands of dogs and cats present to veterinary clinics and hospitals with signs of tick paralysis. In a previous paper, we constructed two models to explain prevalence and temporal distributions of tick paralysis cases presenting to emergency veterinary hospitals in South East Queensland (2009-2020) and the Northern Beaches of Sydney (1999-2017). The first model accounted for the intensity of the clinical burden of tick paralysis based on the prevalence of cases of tick paralysis in the tick paralysis season whereas the second model accounted for the start of the tick paralysis season. In the present paper, we test our models further, with much additional data from 2021 to 2023 (South East Queensland) and from 2018 to 2023 (Northern Beaches of Sydney). During the defined tick paralysis season in these locations, 10.3 % (3207 of 31,217) of veterinary-consultations were for tick paralysis. On average, predictions for the prevalence of cases of tick paralysis were 1.3 % (0.013) away from the actual prevalence whereas predictions for the start of the tick paralysis season were 1.7 weeks away from the actual start of the season. The prediction of the prevalence of tick paralysis cases was most accurate for Brisbane and least accurate for the Northern Beaches of Sydney whereas, curiously, the prediction for the start of the tick paralysis season was most accurate for the Northern Beaches of Sydney and least accurate for Brisbane. We re-fitted the models with the new data. We predict that about 10 % (Sunshine Coast), 5 % (Brisbane), 7 % (Gold Coast) and 12 % (Northern Beaches of Sydney) of veterinary-consultations in the tick paralysis season of 2024 will be cases of tick paralysis, resulting in a tick paralysis clinical burden intensity of similar magnitude to previous years. Such predictions allow for timely public education campaigns around the importance of prevention and appropriate resource planning for veterinary clinics.
东部麻痹蜱，即全沟硬蜱，是澳大利亚兽医领域非常重要的一种蜱虫。每年，都有成千上万的狗和猫因蜱麻痹症状而到兽医诊所和医院就诊。在之前的一篇论文中，我们构建了两个模型来解释 2009 年至 2020 年昆士兰州东南部（South East Queensland）和 1999 年至 2017 年悉尼北部海滩（the Northern Beaches of Sydney）急诊兽医医院报告的蜱麻痹病例的流行率和时间分布。第一个模型根据蜱麻痹季节蜱麻痹病例的流行率来解释蜱麻痹的临床负担强度，而第二个模型则解释了蜱麻痹季节的开始。在本论文中，我们进一步检验了我们的模型，增加了来自 2021 年至 2023 年（昆士兰州东南部）和 2018 年至 2023 年（悉尼北部海滩）的大量额外数据。在这些地点的定义的蜱麻痹季节期间，兽医就诊中有 10.3%（31217 例中的 3207 例）是因蜱麻痹。平均而言，蜱麻痹病例流行率的预测值与实际流行率相差 1.3%（0.013），而蜱麻痹季节开始的预测值与实际季节开始相差 1.7 周。对布里斯班而言，蜱麻痹病例流行率的预测最为准确，而对悉尼北部海滩的预测则最不准确；而有趣的是，蜱麻痹季节开始的预测对悉尼北部海滩最为准确，对布里斯班的预测则最不准确。我们用新数据重新拟合了模型。我们预测，2024 年蜱麻痹季节，阳光海岸（Sunshine Coast）约有 10%（阳光海岸）、布里斯班（Brisbane）约有 5%、黄金海岸（Gold Coast）约有 7%和悉尼北部海滩（the Northern Beaches of Sydney）约有 12%的兽医就诊将是蜱麻痹病例，这将导致与前几年相似规模的蜱麻痹临床负担强度。这种预测可以为预防蜱虫叮咬的重要性开展及时的公众教育活动，并为兽医诊所的适当资源规划提供依据。
