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枪支拥有者中的乐观偏差:与枪支伤害预防措施及政策支持的关联。

Optimism Bias Among Gun Owners: Associations With Firearm Injury Prevention Practices and Policy Support.

作者信息

Aubel Amanda J, Wintemute Garen J, Shev Aaron B, Kravitz-Wirtz Nicole

机构信息

Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.

出版信息

Health Educ Behav. 2025 Jun;52(3):266-277. doi: 10.1177/10901981241267212. Epub 2024 Jul 30.

Abstract

Optimism bias is common across health risk assessments, including firearm injury risk, and can have behavioral consequences. Using data from the 2018 California Safety and Wellbeing Survey, we examine whether optimism bias influences firearm injury prevention practices and policy support by comparing the characteristics, behaviors, and opinions of gun owners who believed having a gun at home is comparatively safer for themselves than for similar others ( group) with (1) those who unequivocally believe guns increase safety for themselves and others ( group), and (2) those who said they "don't know" or "it depends" in both the self and other scenarios ( group). Weighted multinomial logistic regression results indicated that gun owners in the group were more often female, members of minoritized racial or ethnic groups, and new gun owners than the and groups; they also demonstrated greater support for 4 of 5 firearm injury prevention policies/interventions. Despite similar prevalence of owning a gun for protection, gun owners in the group less often carried a loaded firearm or stored a gun in an unsecure way compared with the group. Findings suggest that gun owners characterized by optimism bias, who acknowledged some risk associated with firearms, even if only or more so for others than for themselves, may represent a "movable middle" that is more receptive to firearm injury prevention efforts. Public health messages emphasizing other-oriented (vs. personal) risk and collective responsibility may be perceived as less threatening to the symbolic significance of guns to individual identity, thus enhancing effectiveness.

摘要

乐观偏差在包括枪支伤害风险在内的健康风险评估中很常见,并且可能产生行为后果。利用2018年加利福尼亚州安全与福祉调查的数据,我们通过比较那些认为在家中拥有枪支对自己来说比其他类似的人更安全的枪支拥有者(组)与(1)那些明确认为枪支会增加自己和他人安全性的人(组),以及(2)那些在自我和他人两种情况下都说“不知道”或“视情况而定”的人(组)的特征、行为和观点,来研究乐观偏差是否会影响枪支伤害预防措施和政策支持。加权多项逻辑回归结果表明,组中的枪支拥有者比组和组中的女性更多,属于少数族裔或种族群体的成员更多,新枪支拥有者更多;他们对五项枪支伤害预防政策/干预措施中的四项也表现出更大的支持。尽管为保护目的而拥有枪支的比例相似,但与组相比,组中的枪支拥有者携带上膛枪支或不安全存放枪支的情况较少。研究结果表明,以乐观偏差为特征的枪支拥有者,即使只是承认枪支对他人有风险,甚至比对自己的风险更大,但也承认与枪支相关的一些风险,他们可能代表了一个“可移动的中间群体”,更容易接受枪支伤害预防措施。强调他人导向(相对于个人)风险和集体责任的公共卫生信息可能被认为对枪支对个人身份的象征意义威胁较小,从而提高有效性。

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