A nomogram for predicting low cardiac output syndrome in older patients undergoing acute type A aortic dissection surgery.

OBJECTIVE

Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a dangerous postoperative complication in patients with acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). This study aims to develop and evaluate a nomogram model that can reliably identify risk variables for postoperative LCOS in elderly patients suffering from ATAAD.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, a total of 310 elderly patients with ATAAD admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were included and categorized into the LCOS and non-LCOS groups. Stepwise logistic regression was used to analyze independent predictors of LCOS, and a nomogram was constructed. The best clinical decision points were found using decision analysis and a clinical impact curve.

RESULTS

Postoperative LCOS occurred in 22 (7.1%) of elderly patients with ATAAD. Independent risk factors for postoperative LCOS were age, smoking history, aortic cross-clamp (ACC), coronary heart disease (CHD), and preoperative shock. The nomogram constructed based on the identified risk factors showed good performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that preventive treatment can be administered when needed when the risk of LCOS in older patients with ATAAD after surgery is >60%. This study contributes to developing a methodology that may improve therapeutic decision-making in older patients and provides insights for assessing the risk of LCOS.