Chen Qiaobin, Ning Ying
National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha 410004, China.
College of Forestry, CSUFT, Changsha 410004, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 1;949:175100. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175100. Epub 2024 Jul 29.
Improving our knowledge of future dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the face of climate change and human activities provides a crucial foundation to navigate complex environmental challenges, which are essential to attaining sustainable development particularly in urban regions. However, an existing dearth persists in thoroughly forecasting the intricate interplay of trade-offs and synergies, as well as ecosystem services bundling under distinct future scenarios. This study adopts an integrated research framework to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration (CZTUA) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Our future scenarios suggest that the core urban area of CZTUA is projected to expand at the cost of forests and croplands by 2050. Furthermore, human-induced urbanization, particularly the high-intensity LUCC along the Xiangjiang river, significantly impacts ESs, resulting in lower ESs values. The trade-off effects between ESs are primarily observed between WY (water yield) and other ESs. Ecosystem service bundles (ESB) previously dominated by WY have significantly transitioned to CS (carbon storage)-HQ (habitat quality) bundle, especially in the urban core of CZTUA, which serves as an early warning of potential challenges related to water resources. Our study utilizes the latest climate and land use change predictions to evaluate ecosystems in urban agglomerations, and adopts a layered zoning strategy based on ESs, which provides decision-makers with reproducible tools to explore ecosystem changes.
面对气候变化和人类活动，提高我们对生态系统服务（ESs）未来动态的认识，为应对复杂的环境挑战提供了关键基础，这对于实现可持续发展至关重要，尤其是在城市地区。然而，在全面预测不同未来情景下权衡与协同的复杂相互作用以及生态系统服务捆绑方面，目前仍然存在不足。本研究采用综合研究框架，以了解在三种共享社会经济路径和代表性浓度路径（SSP-RCP）情景（即SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）下，长株潭城市群（CZTUA）生态系统服务的时空动态。我们的未来情景表明，到2050年，CZTUA的核心城区预计将以森林和农田为代价进行扩张。此外，人为导致的城市化，特别是湘江沿岸的高强度土地利用变化（LUCC），对生态系统服务产生了重大影响，导致生态系统服务价值降低。生态系统服务之间的权衡效应主要出现在产水量（WY）与其他生态系统服务之间。以前以产水量为主导的生态系统服务束（ESB）已显著转变为碳储存（CS）-栖息地质量（HQ）束，特别是在CZTUA的城市核心区，这为与水资源相关的潜在挑战提供了早期预警。我们的研究利用最新的气候和土地利用变化预测来评估城市群中的生态系统，并采用基于生态系统服务的分层分区策略，为决策者提供了探索生态系统变化的可重复工具。
