Zheng Yan, Liu Xiaohuang, Shi Jianwei, Zhu Ping, Liu Run, Xing Liyuan, Li Hongyu, Wang Chao
Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, 030006, China.
Key Laboratory of Coupled Processes and Effects of Natural Resource Elements, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100055, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 16;15(1):25814. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09854-7.
Cultivated land in coastal areas is highly vulnerable to climate and has continued to degrade in recent years. To ensure food security in the southeast coastal region, it is necessary to focus on the cultivated land degradation caused by climate change. This study predicted the potential suitable areas for cultivated land in the southeast coastal region using 32 environmental variables by the R-optimized MaxEnt model. Then, the spatial distribution pattern and centroid migration trend of the potential habitat area under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) in the future 2021-2040 (2040s) and 2041-2060 (2060s) were modeled. The results are as follows: (1) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of cultivated land are elevation and daily range of average temperature. (2) Under the current climate scenario, the suitable areas for cultivated land are mainly distributed along the coastal edges of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian, and the eastern and western edges of Taiwan, accounting for 35.4% of the southeast coastal area's total (3) Under future climate change scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585, the potential suitable area for cultivated land generally showed a shrinking trend, decreasing by 3.1 - 6% and - 0.1% - 3.4% respectively. The total suitable area under the SSP126 shrinks more than under the SSP585, suggesting more severe land degradation under the low emission scenario. (4) In future scenarios, the center of suitable cultivated land migrates towards lower latitudes, corresponding with the shift of daily temperature range. The areas suitable for cultivated land predicted in this study can lay a theoretical foundation for future land resource investigation and assessment as well as the preparatory work for cultivated land transfer. Accordingly, it is possible to make advance plans and arrangements in aspects such as infrastructure construction and the promotion of agricultural technologies. While actively promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture, cultivated land resources should be effectively protected, providing scientific guidance for climate change adaptation.
沿海地区的耕地极易受到气候影响，近年来持续退化。为确保东南沿海地区的粮食安全，有必要关注气候变化导致的耕地退化问题。本研究利用32个环境变量，通过R优化的MaxEnt模型预测了东南沿海地区耕地的潜在适宜区。然后，对未来2021 - 2040年（2040年代）和2041 - 2060年（2060年代）两种温室气体排放情景（SSP126和SSP585）下潜在栖息地面积的空间分布格局和质心迁移趋势进行了模拟。结果如下：（1）影响耕地分布的主要环境变量是海拔和平均气温日较差。（2）在当前气候情景下，耕地适宜区主要分布在广西、广东、海南和福建的沿海边缘以及台湾的东西边缘，占东南沿海地区总面积的35.4%。（3）在SSP126和SSP585未来气候变化情景下，耕地潜在适宜区总体呈萎缩趋势，分别减少3.1 - 6%和 - 0.1% - 3.4%。SSP126情景下适宜区总面积的萎缩幅度大于SSP585情景，表明低排放情景下土地退化更严重。（4）在未来情景中，适宜耕地的中心向低纬度地区迁移，与日温度范围的变化相对应。本研究预测的耕地适宜区可为未来土地资源调查评估以及耕地流转的前期工作奠定理论基础。据此，可在基础设施建设和农业技术推广等方面提前规划和安排。在积极推动低碳农业发展的同时，应有效保护耕地资源，为适应气候变化提供科学指导。
