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2016年至2022年山东省空气质量的时空变化及模型预测

Spatial and temporal changes of air quality in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2022 and model prediction.

作者信息

Zhang Xu, Zhang Xinrui, Yang Huanhuan, Cheng Xu, Zhu Yong Guan, Ma Jun, Cui Dayong, Zhang Zhibin

机构信息

School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China; Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.

School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China.

出版信息

J Hazard Mater. 2024 Sep 15;477:135408. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.135408. Epub 2024 Aug 2.

DOI:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.135408
PMID:39096641
Abstract

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of air quality in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2022. The Air Quality Index (AQI) showed a seasonal pattern, with higher values in winter due to temperature inversions and heating emissions, and lower values in summer aided by favorable dispersion conditions. The AQI improved significantly, decreasing by approximately 39.4 % from 6.44 to 3.90. Coastal cities exhibited better air quality than inland areas, influenced by industrial activities and geographical features. For instance, Zibo's geography restricts pollutant dispersion, resulting in poor air quality. CO levels remained stable, while O increased seasonally due to photochemical reactions in summer, with correlation coefficients indicating a strong positive correlation with temperature (r = 0.65). Winter saw elevated NO levels linked to heating and vehicular emissions, with an observed increase in correlation with AQI (r = 0.78). PM and PM concentrations were higher in colder months due to heating and atmospheric dust, showing a significant decrease of 45 % and 40 %, respectively, over the study period. Predictive modeling forecasts continued air quality improvements, contingent on sustained policy enforcement and technological advancements. This approach provides a comprehensive framework for future air quality management and improvement.

摘要

本研究调查了2016年至2022年山东省空气质量的时空动态。空气质量指数(AQI)呈现出季节性模式,冬季由于逆温现象和供暖排放,AQI值较高,而夏季在有利的扩散条件下,AQI值较低。AQI有显著改善,从6.44降至3.90,降幅约为39.4%。受工业活动和地理特征影响,沿海城市的空气质量优于内陆地区。例如,淄博的地理环境限制了污染物的扩散,导致空气质量较差。一氧化碳(CO)水平保持稳定,而夏季由于光化学反应,臭氧(O)季节性增加,相关系数表明其与温度呈强正相关(r = 0.65)。冬季,氮氧化物(NO)水平因供暖和车辆排放而升高,与AQI的相关性增强(r = 0.78)。在较冷月份,由于供暖和大气扬尘,细颗粒物(PM)和可吸入颗粒物(PM)浓度较高,在研究期间分别显著下降了45%和40%。预测模型预测,持续的政策执行和技术进步将使空气质量持续改善。该方法为未来的空气质量管理和改善提供了一个全面的框架。

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