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奶牛养殖打印模型:一种决策支持模型,旨在帮助奶农和其他利益相关者提高可持续性。

The DairyPrint model: A decision support model to help dairy farmers and other stakeholders toward improved sustainability.

作者信息

da Silva Tadeu E, Cabrera Victor E

机构信息

Department of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Vermont-Burlington, Burlington, VT 05405.

Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2024 Dec;107(12):10998-11015. doi: 10.3168/jds.2024-24946. Epub 2024 Aug 3.

DOI:10.3168/jds.2024-24946
PMID:39098493
Abstract

Dairy farmers face increasing pressure to reduce GHG emissions (i.e., carbon dioxide, CO; methane, CH; and nitrous oxide, NO), but measuring on-farm GHG emissions directly is costly or impractical. Therefore, the dairy industry has relied upon mathematical models to estimate these emissions. However, current models tend to be not user-friendly, difficult to access, or sometimes very research-focused, limiting their practical use. To address this, we introduce the DairyPrint model, a user-friendly tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from dairy farming. The model integrates herd dynamics, manure management, crop, and feed costs considerations, simplifying the estimation process while providing comprehensive insights. The herd module simulates monthly herd dynamics based on inputs as total cows, calving interval, and culling rate, outputting average annual demographics and estimating various animal-related variables (i.e., DMI, milk yield, manure excretion, and enteric CH emissions). These outputs feed into other modules, such as the manure module, which calculates emissions based on manure, weather data, and facility type. The manure module processes manure according to farm practices, and the crop module accounts for GHG emissions from manure, fertilizers, and limestone application, also estimating nutrient balances. The DairyPrint model was developed using the Shiny framework and the Golem package for robust production-grade Shiny applications in the R programming language. We evaluated the model across 32 simulation scenarios by combining various factors and considering a standard freestall system with 1,000 dairy cows averaging 40 kg/d of milk production. These factors included 2 NDF-ADF levels in the diet (28%-22.8% and 24%-19.5%), the presence or absence of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3-NOP) dietary addition (yes or no) at an average dose of 70 mg/kg DM per cow daily, the type of bedding used (sawdust or sand), the frequency of manure pond emptying (once yearly, only in fall; or twice a year, in fall and spring), and the use or nonuse of a biodigester plus solid-liquid separator (Biod + SL). In our results across the 32 scenarios simulated, the average GHG emission was 0.811 kg CO eq/kg of milk, corrected for fat and protein contents (4% and 3.3%, respectively), ranging from 0.644 to 1.082. Notably, the scenario yielding the lowest GHG emission (i.e., 0.644 kg CO eq/kg) involved a combination of factors, including a lower NDF-ADF level in the diet in addition to incorporation of 3-NOP, use of sand as bedding, application of Biod + SL, and strategic manure pond emptying in both fall and spring. Conversely, the scenario that resulted in the highest GHG emission (i.e., 1.082 kg CO eq/kg) involved a combination of a higher NDF-ADF level in the diet and excluded incorporation of 3-NOP, use of sawdust as bedding, no application of Biod + SL, and manure pond emptying only in fall. All these scenarios can easily be simulated in the DairyPrint model, with results obtained immediately for user evaluation. Therefore, the DairyPrint model can help farmers move toward improved sustainability, providing a user-friendly and intuitive graphical user interface allowing the user to ask what-if questions.

摘要

奶农面临着越来越大的减少温室气体排放(即二氧化碳、一氧化碳;甲烷、CH₄;以及一氧化二氮、N₂O)的压力,但直接测量农场温室气体排放成本高昂或不切实际。因此,乳制品行业一直依赖数学模型来估算这些排放。然而,当前的模型往往不便于用户使用、难以获取,或者有时过于聚焦研究,限制了它们的实际应用。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了DairyPrint模型,这是一个旨在估算奶牛养殖温室气体排放的用户友好型工具。该模型整合了畜群动态、粪便管理、作物和饲料成本等因素,简化了估算过程,同时提供了全面的见解。畜群模块根据奶牛总数、产犊间隔和淘汰率等输入数据模拟每月的畜群动态,输出年均种群统计数据,并估算各种与动物相关的变量(即干物质采食量、产奶量、粪便排泄量和肠道CH₄排放量)。这些输出数据输入到其他模块,如粪便模块,该模块根据粪便、天气数据和设施类型计算排放量。粪便模块根据农场实践处理粪便,作物模块考虑粪便、肥料和石灰石施用产生的温室气体排放,同时也估算养分平衡。DairyPrint模型是使用Shiny框架和Golem包在R编程语言中开发的,用于稳健的生产级Shiny应用程序。我们通过组合各种因素,并考虑一个拥有1000头奶牛、平均日产奶量40公斤的标准散栏系统,在32个模拟场景中对该模型进行了评估。这些因素包括日粮中两个中性洗涤纤维-酸性洗涤纤维水平(28%-22.8%和24%-19.5%)、是否添加3-硝基氧丙醇(3-NOP)日粮添加物(是或否),平均剂量为每头奶牛每天70毫克/公斤干物质、所使用的垫料类型(锯末或沙子)、粪便池排空频率(每年一次,仅在秋季;或每年两次,在秋季和春季),以及是否使用生物消化器加固液分离器(Biod + SL)。在我们模拟的32个场景的结果中,经脂肪和蛋白质含量(分别为4%和3.3%)校正后,平均温室气体排放为0.811千克二氧化碳当量/千克牛奶,范围为0.644至1.082。值得注意的是,产生最低温室气体排放(即0.644千克二氧化碳当量/千克)的场景涉及多种因素的组合,包括日粮中较低的中性洗涤纤维-酸性洗涤纤维水平,此外还包括添加3-NOP、使用沙子作为垫料、应用Biod + SL以及在秋季和春季进行战略性粪便池排空。相反,导致最高温室气体排放(即1.082千克二氧化碳当量/千克)的场景涉及日粮中较高的中性洗涤纤维-酸性洗涤纤维水平,且不包括添加3-NOP、使用锯末作为垫料、不应用Biod + SL以及仅在秋季进行粪便池排空。所有这些场景都可以在DairyPrint模型中轻松模拟,并立即获得结果供用户评估。因此,DairyPrint模型可以帮助奶农朝着提高可持续性的方向发展,提供一个用户友好且直观的图形用户界面,允许用户提出假设性问题。

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