The use of sedimentary metals to assess anthropogenic change, ecological risk, model past and future impacts and identify contaminant sources in the eleven estuaries of Greater Sydney (Australia): A review and critical assessment.

The Greater Sydney (Australia) region is dissected by eleven major estuaries comprising a wide range of sizes, sediment and contaminant types, while the catchments also vary in size, land use type, populations size and geology/soils. The magnitude and breadth of the current study are rare and offered an unusual opportunity to provide new information on interactions between source, fate and effect relationships of a highly diverse estuarine-catchment environment using sedimentary metals (Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn). Advanced methodologies used in this study revealed that although metal concentrations were generally high, ecological risk was surprisingly reduced due to the presence of metal-poor coarse sediment. Stormwater was identified as the dominant source of metals to estuaries of Greater Sydney and relates to development of high-density road networks. Industrial sources, frequently identified as a major contributor to estuarine contamination, was significantly reduced due to the decline of industry through decentralisation and gentrification and because waste is discharged to the sewer system, which is released offshore, or tertiary-treated to the Hawkesbury. Groundwater leachate associated with shoreline reclamation and wetland infilling and metals related to boating activities were important sources of metals impacting local bays and coastal lagoons. Temporal monitoring and unique modelling approaches indicated that the concentration of sedimentary metals is generally declining in these estuaries, (especially for Pb), except for areas with rapidly increasing urban populations. Multivariate statistical modelling was able to differentiate the 11 estuaries on a chemical basis by aligning Cu, Pb, Zn vectors with metal-rich estuaries and also identified catchment attributes (percent area, total yield, anthropogenic yield and population density) normalised to catchment areas as having a major influence on estuarine condition. The new knowledge derived from this study should be used to assess the environmental status of estuaries and to prioritise management actions in future investigations.