Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Iskenderun Technical University, Iskenderun 31200, Hatay, Türkiye.
Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Bandirma Onyedi Eylül University, Bandirma 10200, Balikesir, Türkiye.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2024 Sep;206:116801. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116801. Epub 2024 Aug 7.
Ships present a significant source of air pollution, contributing to environmental degradation and posing health risks. Boilers are a significant part of the vessels in which the water is heated to evaporate and generate steam. The boilers emit pollutants such as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), particle pollution, and volatile organic compounds (VOC). This paper conducts an extended risk analysis for air pollution due to boiler operation on ships. An improved Z-numbers theory and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are adopted to predict risk. Whilst improved Z-number theory is capable of handling uncertainties inherent in risk assessment, the FTA presents systematically the causal relationships among various factors contributing to the risk of air pollution on ships. The findings show that the failure probability of air pollution during ship boiler operation is 2.08E-05 and BE-12 is the most significant event. Results provide valuable data to maritime stakeholders in fostering environmentally sustainable practices.
船舶是空气污染的一个重要来源，对环境恶化和健康风险构成威胁。锅炉是船舶中用于加热水以蒸发并产生蒸汽的重要部分。锅炉排放的污染物包括危险空气污染物（HAPs）、颗粒污染和挥发性有机化合物（VOC）。本文对船舶锅炉运行导致的空气污染进行了扩展风险分析。采用改进的 Z 数理论和故障树分析（FTA）来预测风险。虽然改进的 Z 数理论能够处理风险评估中固有的不确定性，但 FTA 系统地呈现了导致船舶空气污染风险的各种因素之间的因果关系。研究结果表明，船舶锅炉运行期间空气污染的失效概率为 2.08E-05，BE-12 是最关键的事件。研究结果为海事利益相关者提供了有价值的数据，以促进环境可持续实践。
