Long-term trends (1986-2019) in the physicochemical properties of the Sado Estuary (Portugal) driven primarily by changes in river flow and influenced by marine upwelling.

Estuaries are among the most sensitive systems to climate change. Previous studies have suggested that the Sado Estuary (Portugal) has decreasing trends for water temperature, which is uncommon in a global warming scenario. However, no long-term analysis regarding water column conditions has been conducted on this estuary to date. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to understand if and how the properties of this estuary have changed, considering a 34-year trend analysis and an assessment of their main drivers. Water temperature significantly decreased (up to 0.04 °C/year) along with chlorophyll a. Salinity increased and nutrients displayed an overall decrease. These trends were potentially driven by higher influence of upwelled water combined with a reduction of the river flow. Sado appears to have a lower vulnerability to climate change than other estuaries as it does not show a high sensitivity to changes in its water column physicochemical properties.