Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal medicine, Yeouido St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Department of Statistics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Respirology. 2024 Nov;29(11):985-993. doi: 10.1111/resp.14818. Epub 2024 Aug 12.
Understanding the seasonal behaviours of respiratory viruses is crucial for preventing infections. We evaluated the seasonality of respiratory viruses using time-series analyses.
This study analysed prospectively collected nationwide surveillance data on eight respiratory viruses, gathered from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Surveillance System. The data were collected on a weekly basis by 52 nationwide primary healthcare institutions between 2015 and 2019. We performed Spearman correlation analyses, similarity analyses via dynamic time warping (DTW) and seasonality analyses using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA).
The prevalence of rhinovirus (RV, 23.6%-31.4%), adenovirus (AdV, 9.2%-16.6%), human coronavirus (HCoV, 3.0%-6.6%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 11.7%-20.1%), influenza virus (IFV, 11.7%-21.5%), parainfluenza virus (PIV, 9.2%-12.6%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV, 5.6%-6.9%) and human bocavirus (HBoV, 5.0%-6.4%) were derived. Most of them exhibited a high positive correlation in Spearman analyses. In DTW analyses, all virus data from 2015 to 2019, except AdV, exhibited good alignments. In SARIMA, AdV and RV did not show seasonality. Other viruses showed 12-month seasonality. We describe the viruses as winter viruses (HCoV, RSV and IFV), spring/summer viruses (PIV, HBoV), a spring virus (HMPV) and all-year viruses with peak incidences during school periods (RV and AdV).
This is the first study to comprehensively analyse the seasonal behaviours of the eight most common respiratory viruses using nationwide, prospectively collected, sentinel surveillance data.
了解呼吸道病毒的季节性行为对于预防感染至关重要。我们使用时间序列分析评估了呼吸道病毒的季节性。
本研究分析了韩国流感和呼吸道监测系统收集的 2015 年至 2019 年期间 52 家全国性基层医疗机构每周收集的 8 种呼吸道病毒的全国性监测数据。我们进行了 Spearman 相关分析、通过动态时间规整（DTW）的相似性分析和季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）的季节性分析。
鼻病毒（RV，23.6%-31.4%）、腺病毒（AdV，9.2%-16.6%）、人冠状病毒（HCoV，3.0%-6.6%）、呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV，11.7%-20.1%）、流感病毒（IFV，11.7%-21.5%）、副流感病毒（PIV，9.2%-12.6%）、人偏肺病毒（HMPV，5.6%-6.9%）和人博卡病毒（HBoV，5.0%-6.4%）的流行率。Spearman 分析显示，它们中的大多数呈高度正相关。在 DTW 分析中，除 AdV 外，2015 年至 2019 年的所有病毒数据都有很好的对齐。在 SARIMA 中，AdV 和 RV 没有表现出季节性。其他病毒显示出 12 个月的季节性。我们将这些病毒描述为冬季病毒（HCoV、RSV 和 IFV）、春/夏季病毒（PIV、HBoV）、春季病毒（HMPV）和全年病毒（RV 和 AdV），其发病高峰期在学校期间。
这是第一项使用全国范围内前瞻性收集的监测数据全面分析八种最常见呼吸道病毒季节性行为的研究。
