Department of Infectious Diseases, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Friedbuehlstrasse 53, CH-3010, Bern, Switzerland.
Division of Infectious Diseases, John T Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, 4523 Clayton Ave, St. Louis, MO, 63110, USA.
Antimicrob Resist Infect Control. 2024 Aug 13;13(1):88. doi: 10.1186/s13756-024-01431-3.
Healthcare delivery is undergoing radical changes that influence effective infection prevention and control (IPC). Futures research (short: Futures), the science of deliberating on multiple potential future states, is increasingly employed in many core societal fields. Futures might also be helpful in IPC to facilitate current education and organisational decisions. Hence, we conducted an initial survey as part of the IPC Crystal Ball Initiative.
In 2019, international IPC experts were invited to answer a 10-item online questionnaire, including demographics, housekeeping, and open-ended core questions (Q) on the "status of IPC in 2030" (Q1), "people in charge of IPC" (Q2), "necessary skills in IPC" (Q3), and "burning research questions" (Q4). The four core questions were submitted to a three-step inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis. A subsequent cross-case matrix produced overarching leitmotifs. Q1 statements were additionally coded for sentiment analysis (positive, neutral, or negative).
Overall, 18 of 44 (41%) invited experts responded (from 11 countries; 12 physicians, four nurses, one manager, one microbiologist; all of them in senior positions). The emerging leitmotifs were "System integration", "Beyond the hospital", "Behaviour change and implementation", "Automation and digitalisation", and "Anticipated scientific progress and innovation". The statements reflected an optimistic outlook in 66% of all codes of Q1.
The first exercise of the IPC Crystal Ball Initiative reflected an optimistic outlook on IPC in 2030, and participants envisioned leveraging technological and medical progress to increase IPC effectiveness, freeing IPC personnel from administrative tasks to be more present at the point of care and increasing IPC integration and expansion through the application of a broad range of skills. Enhancing participant immersion in future Crystal Ball Initiative exercises through simulation would likely further increase the authenticity and comprehensiveness of the envisioned futures.
医疗保健服务正在发生重大变革，这影响了有效的感染预防和控制（IPC）。未来研究（简称 Futures）是一门思考多种潜在未来状态的科学，它在许多核心社会领域的应用越来越广泛。在 IPC 中，未来研究也可能有助于促进当前的教育和组织决策。因此，我们作为 IPC 水晶球倡议的一部分，进行了一项初步调查。
2019 年，我们邀请了国际 IPC 专家回答一个包含 10 个项目的在线问卷，包括人口统计学、家务管理以及关于“2030 年 IPC 状况”（问题 1）、“负责 IPC 的人员”（问题 2）、“IPC 必备技能”（问题 3）和“亟待解决的研究问题”（问题 4）的开放性核心问题。这四个核心问题被提交给了一个三步归纳演绎定性内容分析。随后的跨案例矩阵生成了总体主题。问题 1 的陈述还进行了情感分析（积极、中性或消极）。
总共 44 位受邀专家中的 18 位（41%）做出了回应（来自 11 个国家；12 名医生、4 名护士、1 名管理人员、1 名微生物学家；均处于高级职位）。出现的主题是“系统集成”、“超越医院”、“行为改变和实施”、“自动化和数字化”以及“预期的科学进步和创新”。问题 1 中的所有编码中有 66%反映出乐观的前景。
IPC 水晶球倡议的第一次实践反映了人们对 2030 年 IPC 的乐观展望，参与者设想利用技术和医学进步来提高 IPC 的效果，使 IPC 人员从行政任务中解放出来，以便更直接地在护理点提供服务，并通过应用广泛的技能来增加 IPC 的整合和扩展。通过模拟来增强参与者对未来水晶球倡议实践的沉浸感，可能会进一步提高所设想的未来的真实性和全面性。
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