Gonzalez Constanza, García-Pérez Alfonso, Nervi Bruno, Munoz César, Morales Erik, Losada Hector, Merino-Pereira Gina, Rothhammer Francisco, Lorenzo Bermejo Justo
Statistical Genetics Research Group, Institute of Medical Biometry, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Center for Cancer Prevention and Control (CECAN), Santiago, Chile.
Int J Cancer. 2025 Jan 1;156(1):91-103. doi: 10.1002/ijc.35138. Epub 2024 Aug 16.
Gallbladder cancer (GBC) mortality in Chile is among the highest worldwide. In 2006, the Chilean government launched a programme guaranteeing access to gallbladder surgery (cholecystectomy) for patients aged 35-49 years. We evaluated the impact of this programme on digestive cancer mortality. After conducting an interrupted time series analysis of hospitalisation and mortality data from 2002 to 2018 publicly available from the Chilean Department of Health Statistics and Information, we calculated the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years. We then estimated age, gender, region, and calendar-year standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as a function of the change in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder. The cholecystectomy rate increased by 45 operations per 100,000 persons per year (95%CI 19-72) after the introduction of the health programme. Each 1% increase in the proportion of individuals without gallbladder since 10 years was associated with a 0.73% decrease in GBC mortality (95% CI -1.05% to -0.38%), but the negative correlation was limited to women, southern Chile and age over 60. We also found decreasing mortality rates for extrahepatic bile duct, liver, oesophageal and stomach cancer with increasing proportions of individuals without gallbladder. To conclude, 12 years after its inception, the Chilean cholecystectomy programme has markedly and heterogeneously changed cholecystectomy rates. Results based on aggregate data indicate a negative correlation between the proportion of individuals without gallbladder and mortality due to gallbladder and other digestive cancers, which requires validation using individual-level longitudinal data to reduce the potential impact of ecological bias.
智利的胆囊癌(GBC)死亡率位居全球前列。2006年,智利政府启动了一项计划,确保35至49岁的患者能够接受胆囊手术(胆囊切除术)。我们评估了该计划对消化系统癌症死亡率的影响。在对智利卫生统计与信息部公开提供的2002年至2018年住院和死亡率数据进行中断时间序列分析后,我们计算了自10年前以来无胆囊个体比例的变化。然后,我们根据无胆囊个体比例的变化,估计了年龄、性别、地区和历年标准化死亡率(SMRs)。实施该卫生计划后,胆囊切除术率每年每10万人增加45例(95%CI 19 - 72)。自10年前以来,无胆囊个体比例每增加1%,GBC死亡率就降低0.73%(95%CI -1.05%至-0.38%),但这种负相关仅限于女性、智利南部和60岁以上人群。我们还发现,随着无胆囊个体比例的增加,肝外胆管癌、肝癌、食管癌和胃癌的死亡率也在下降。总之,智利胆囊切除术计划实施12年后,胆囊切除术率发生了显著且不均衡的变化。基于汇总数据的结果表明,无胆囊个体比例与胆囊癌和其他消化系统癌症导致的死亡率之间存在负相关,这需要使用个体层面的纵向数据进行验证,以减少生态偏倚的潜在影响。