Long-term changes of methane emissions from rice cultivation during 2000 - 2060 in China: Trends, driving factors, predictions and policy implications.

Regional budget assessments of methane (CH) are critical for future climate and environmental management. CH emissions from rice cultivation (CH) constitute one of the most significant sources. However, previous studies mainly focus on historical emission estimates and lack consideration of future changes in CH under climate change or anthropogenic policy intervention, which hampers our understanding of long-term trends and the implementation of targeted emission reduction efforts. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of CH over the past two decades, using an integrated method to identify the major drivers and predict future emissions under climate change scenarios and policy perspectives. Results indicate that the CH emissions in China ranged between 6.21 and 6.57 Tg yr over the past two decades, with a spatial distribution characterized by decreases in the south and increases in the north, associated with economic development, dietary shifts, technological advancements, and climate change. Factors such as the rate of straw added (RSA), fertilization, soil texture, temperature, and precipitation significantly influence CH emissions per unit rice production (CH), with RSA identified as the most significant tillage management factor, explaining 32 % of the variance. Lowering RSA to 8 % is beneficial for reducing CH. Scenario analysis indicates that under policies focusing on production or demand, CH is expected to increase by 0.3 % to 5.6 %, while adjusting RSA can reduce CH by 9.4 % to 10.0 %. Structural adjustments and regional cooperation serve as beneficial starting points for controlling and reducing CH in China, while optimizing industrial layouts contributes to regional development and CH control. Implementing policies related to maintaining field and crop yields can achieve a balance between rice supply and demand ahead of schedule. Dynamic adjustment of rice cultivation based on supply-demand balance can effectively reduce CH from excess rice production. By 2060, the reduction effect could reach 8.95 %-12.01 %. Introducing policy-driven tillage management measures as reference indicators facilitates the reduction of CH.