National Cancer Registry in Ireland, Cork, Ireland.
National Cancer Control Programme, Dublin 1, Ireland.
Eur J Public Health. 2024 Oct 1;34(5):908-913. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckae092.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic impacted cancer services worldwide. We examined the effect of the first three pandemic waves on the number of electronic (e)-referrals to rapid access clinics (RACs) for breast, lung and prostate cancer in Ireland.
This study used a retrospective, repeated cross-sectional design. The predicted weekly number of e-referrals by suspected cancer types from March 2020 to May 2021 was calculated using the Holt-Winters seasonal smoothing method, based on the observed numbers from a representative pre-pandemic period (01 January 2019 to 01 March 2020) and compared this with the observed number across the first three pandemic waves (02 March 2020 to 09 May 2021). Percentage differences were calculated between observed and predicted numbers of e-referrals for the three RACs and patterns were examined in each wave.
Observed e-referrals were lower than predicted for all three RACs in the first wave of the pandemic (15.7% lower for breast, 39.5% lower for lung and 28.1% lower for prostate) with varying levels of recovery in the second and third waves for the three e-referral types.
The COVID-19 pandemic impacted patterns of e-referrals to RACs in the first three pandemic waves in Ireland. Early identification of changes in engagement with health services, such as a decrease in primary care presentations with a resultant decrease in e-referrals to RACs can allow for a rapid response from cancer control programmes. Continued surveillance of the impact of service disruption on cancer services allows policy makers and strategic leaders in cancer control programmes to respond rapidly to mitigate the impact on cancer outcomes.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对全球癌症服务产生了影响。我们研究了前三个大流行波对爱尔兰乳腺癌、肺癌和前列腺癌快速通道诊所（RAC）电子（e）转诊数量的影响。
本研究采用回顾性、重复横断面设计。根据代表性大流行前时期（2019 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 3 月 1 日）的观察数据和前三个大流行波期间的观察数据，使用 Holt-Winters 季节性平滑方法计算出 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 5 月期间疑似癌症类型的每周电子转诊预测数量，并将其与前三个大流行波期间的观察数量进行比较。计算了三个 RAC 中观察到的和预测到的 e 转诊数量之间的百分比差异，并在每个波中检查了模式。
在大流行的第一波中，所有三个 RAC 的观察到的 e 转诊量均低于预测值（乳腺癌低 15.7%，肺癌低 39.5%，前列腺癌低 28.1%），三种 e 转诊类型在第二波和第三波中均有不同程度的恢复。
COVID-19 大流行影响了爱尔兰前三个大流行波中 RAC 的 e 转诊模式。早期识别与卫生服务参与度的变化，如初级保健就诊量减少导致 RAC 的 e 转诊量减少，可使癌症控制计划做出快速反应。继续监测服务中断对癌症服务的影响，使癌症控制计划的政策制定者和战略领导者能够迅速做出反应，减轻对癌症结果的影响。
