Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2024 Aug;30(8):e17478. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17478.
Changes in phenology are occurring from global climate change, yet the impacts of other types of global change on the phenology of animals remain less appreciated. Understanding the potential for synergistic effects of different types of global change on phenology is needed, because changing climate regimes can have cascading effects, particularly on invasive species that vary in their thermal tolerances. Using 25 years of data from 5963 nests and 4675 marked individuals across the entire US breeding range of an endangered predator, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus), we isolated the effects of an invasion of novel prey and warming temperatures on breeding phenology and its demographic consequences. Over this time period, breeding season length doubled, increasing by approximately 14 weeks. Both temperature and the establishment of invasive prey interacted to explain the timing of nest initiation. Temperature and invasive prey played distinct roles: earlier nest initiation occurred with increasing temperatures, whereas late nesting increased with invasion. Ultimately, both nest survival and juvenile survival declined later in the year, such that effects from invasive prey, but not warming temperatures, have the apparent potential for mistiming in breeding phenology by some individuals. Nonetheless, relatively few nesting events occurred during late fall when nest survival was very low, and seasonal declines in nest survival were weaker and renesting was more frequent in invaded wetlands, such that total reproductive output increased with invasion. Variation in demographic effects illustrate that considering only particular components of demography (e.g., nest survival rates) may be inadequate to infer the overall consequences of changes in phenology, particularly the potential for mistiming of phenological events. These results emphasize that species invasions may profoundly alter phenology of native species, such effects are distinct from climate effects, and both interact to drive population change.
物候变化正受到全球气候变化的影响，但其他类型的全球变化对动物物候的影响仍未得到充分认识。需要了解不同类型的全球变化对物候学的协同作用的潜力，因为气候变化模式的改变会产生级联效应，特别是对热耐受性不同的入侵物种。我们利用 5963 个巢和 4675 个标记个体在整个美国繁殖范围内的 25 年数据，研究了一种濒危捕食者（snail kite，Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus）的新型猎物入侵和气温升高对繁殖物候及其对种群的影响。在这段时间里，繁殖季节的长度增加了一倍，大约增加了 14 周。温度和入侵的猎物都对繁殖物候的开始时间产生了影响。温度和入侵的猎物起着不同的作用：随着温度的升高，巢的开始时间更早，而随着入侵的增加，巢的开始时间更晚。最终，巢的存活率和幼鸟的存活率都在一年中较晚的时候下降，因此，入侵的猎物对繁殖物候的时机产生了影响，而不是变暖的温度，这对一些个体来说可能会导致繁殖物候的时机失调。尽管如此，在秋季后期，当巢的存活率非常低时，相对较少的巢被建立，在入侵湿地中，巢的存活率下降较弱，并且更频繁地进行再筑巢，因此，繁殖输出随着入侵而增加。种群动态效应的变化表明，仅考虑种群动态的特定组成部分（例如，巢的存活率）可能不足以推断物候变化的总体后果，特别是物候事件时机失调的潜在可能性。这些结果强调了物种入侵可能会深刻地改变本地物种的物候，这种影响与气候影响不同，并且两者相互作用，推动了种群变化。
