Disentangling the contributions of anthropogenic nutrient input and physical forcing to long-term deoxygenation off the Pearl River Estuary, China.

Deoxygenation in estuarine and coastal waters worldwide has been largely attributed to the increasing anthropogenic nutrient input, whereas the contribution by long-term (decadal) changes in physical forcing is less investigated. This study aims to disentangle the impacts of three-decade changes in summer river nutrient concentration and physical forcing on the deoxygenation off a large eutrophic estuary, the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in China. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we reproduce the observed summer oxygen conditions under the historical (the 1990s) and present (the 2020s) status of river nutrient concentration, freshwater discharge, and wind forcing. We show that the bottom hypoxic (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/L) area off the PRE in the 2020s has increased by 73 % relative to the 1990s. The expansion is a result of the increased bottom water oxygen consumption outweighing the enhanced vertical oxygen supply, with the former driven by the sharp increase in inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (160 %) and the latter caused by the decadal decline in both freshwater discharge (38 %) and wind speed (12.5 %) in summer. Model experiments suggest that if the observed changes in physical forcing had not occurred, the dramatic increase in anthropogenic nutrient concentrations from the 1990s to 2020s could have led to a much greater expansion of hypoxic area (249 %). On the contrary, the decadal decrease in summer freshwater discharge alone (while keeping the nutrient loading the same as in the 1990s) almost eliminates hypoxia off the PRE by weakening water column stratification and limiting the offshore spread of nutrients and organic matter, whereas the declined wind speed increases the hypoxic area by 247 % mainly through enhancing water column stability. Our results reveal that long-term changes in physical forcing are confounding the effects of anthropogenic nutrient input on deoxygenation, underlining the need to consider regional forcing changes in nutrient management to meet water quality goals.