Inter-individual variability in elliptical and diagonal error distributions potentially relevant to optimal motor planning in football instep kicking.

The distribution of motor errors can influence optimal motor planning (where to aim). In football instep kicking, it was shown that ball landing locations exhibit the right-up-left-down elliptical distribution in right-footed kickers and vice versa. However, this was reported as a result of mixed multiple kickers; the individual-level error distribution has been unclear. Here we show substantial inter-individual variability in error shape and error direction in the 30 kicks aimed at a target (1.7 m high, 11.0 m in front) by 27 male football players. All players exhibit right-up-left-down distributions with ellipticity (minor/major radius ratio of the 95% confidence ellipse) ranging from 0.25 to 0.77 and major axis angle ranging from 13 to 67° from the horizontal axis. The mean absolute error and the area of the 95% confidence ellipse are not significantly correlated with major axis angle (ρ ≤ 0.312) and ellipticity (|r| ≤ 0.343). By simulating shots aimed at the top-right and top-left edges of a goal with these observed ranges and normalised ellipse area, we reveal a wide range of probability of shots on goal (top-right: 2.7-fold difference, top-left: 1.5-fold difference) due to inter-individual variability in error shape and direction independent of error size. Further simulation shows that, depending on the shape-direction combination, the aiming points with the same 80% probability of shots on goal change by up to 0.3 m vertically, even for the same minimal error size. We highlight the importance for football players to consider not only accuracy/precision, but also error shape and direction to optimise motor planning.