Modelling heat stress effects on milk production traits in Tunisian Holsteins using a random regression approach.

This study investigated the impact of temperature and humidity on milk production traits in Tunisian dairy cows, analysing population-level trends and individual cow responses using various modelling techniques and heat stress (HS) indices. Two distinct datasets were used for this purpose: the first included 551,139; 331,654 and 302,396 test-day records for milk, fat and protein yields, respectively. The second supplemented the production information with daily average (THIavg) and maximum (THImax) temperature-humidity index (THI) data. Three main parts of analyses were conducted simultaneously: classical least squares, identification of HS thresholds and associated production losses and assessment of individual cow responses using random regression models (RRM) fitting various continuous functions that include/exclude individual effects. The best model, determined by goodness-of-fit measurements, was a cubic polynomial function that accounted for individual variation and THIavg as a heat load measure. HS thresholds were established at THIavg/THImax of 70/74 for milk yield, 50/55 for fat percentage, 59/66 for protein percentage, 54/63 for fat yield and 56/66 for protein yield. According to the fitted polynomial models, daily milk production traits showed a curvilinear decline with accelerated loss rates beyond the established thermal thresholds. However, for all models and thermal indices, maximum daily production losses remained below 164 g/day, 4.4 g/day and 6.1 g/day for milk, fat and protein yields, respectively. Despite these losses, the relatively high thermal thresholds and lower associated production losses suggest that Tunisian dairy cows can tolerate high heat loads. Moreover, observed variations in response patterns indicate potential for selecting heat-tolerant individuals within this population.