Long-term trends in the functional structure of estuarine fish assemblages in a subtropical estuary and its relationships with local environmental variability, man-made changes, and climatic drivers.

Climate and anthropogenic impacts are prevalent in marine and estuarine ecosystems. Rapid environmental changes have altered biological diversity and the ecological services associated with ecosystems around the world. The consequences of these impacts on estuarine ecosystems are worrying, given that estuaries are essential habitats for maintaining the diversity of species functions, as they act as sources for larger ecosystems through the recruitment and replacement of species. Through long-term standardized monitoring (1996-2019), we evaluated the temporal variability of the functional structure of fish species in a subtropical estuary using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and their relationship with environmental, climatic, and anthropogenic variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We investigate the hypothesis that natural disturbances associated with El Niño events and anthropogenic ones related with changes in the estuary morphology will lead to a decrease in the diversity of functions of the fish assemblage in the Patos Lagoon Estuary in south Brazil (32°S). Our findings suggest an overall downward trend in the fish functional structure, especially in the second half (2006-2019) of the time series, which seems to be associated with a combination of abiotic effects (salinity and temperature), global climate phenomena (ENSO phases) and anthropogenic impacts (changes in the morphology of the estuarine mouth and its connection with the sea). These findings rise concern considering the current climate change scenario, where phenomena such as El Niño may become more frequent and intense. Therefore, the evidence from this study suggests that extreme natural climatic events in synergy with anthropogenic disturbances may imply biodiversity losses over time and, consequently, loss of ecosystem processes in a subtropical estuary.