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中国安全生产指标与经济社会指标发展关系研究。

Research on the development relationship between safety production indicators and economic and social indicators in China.

机构信息

School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing, 100080, China.

International Exchange and Cooperation Center, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 26;14(1):19775. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-70945-y.

Abstract

In order to study the relationship between China's safety production indicators and economic and social indicators, the development trend of indicator data in the past 20 years was statistically analyzed, and qualitative and quantitative research was conducted using grey relational analysis and multiple linear regression analysis methods. In the past two decades, there has been a significant improvement in the number of deaths, work-related injuries, and occupational patients in China's safety production, and the country's three categories of 14 economic and social indicators have achieved rapid development. Using the grey relation analysis method, the grey correlation degree between the number of deaths, work-related injuries, and occupational patients in China over the past twenty years and 14 economic and social indicators was obtained. The ranking of economic and social indicators that affect the number of deaths, work-related injuries, and occupational patients varies greatly. A multiple linear regression model was established for the number of deaths, work-related injuries, occupational diseases, and 14 economic and social indicators. The rationality of the model was verified from four aspects: R, F-value, P-value, and deviation between actual and fitted values. Provide guidance for the development of safety production indicators and economic and social indicators in China through research.

摘要

为了研究中国安全生产指标与经济社会指标之间的关系,对过去 20 年指标数据的发展趋势进行了统计分析,采用灰色关联分析和多元线性回归分析方法进行了定性和定量研究。在过去的二十年中,中国在安全生产方面的死亡人数、工伤事故和职业病患者数量都有了显著的改善,全国 14 项经济社会指标也取得了快速发展。利用灰色关联分析方法,得到了过去 20 年中国死亡人数、工伤事故和职业病患者数量与 14 项经济社会指标的灰色关联度。影响死亡人数、工伤事故和职业病患者数量的经济社会指标的排名差异很大。为死亡人数、工伤事故、职业病和 14 项经济社会指标建立了多元线性回归模型。从 R 值、F 值、P 值和实际值与拟合值之间的偏差四个方面验证了模型的合理性。通过研究为中国安全生产指标和经济社会指标的发展提供了指导。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fd5c/11347676/52fbf2527c12/41598_2024_70945_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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