Ioannidis Aristeidis, Tzikos Georgios, Smprini Aikaterini, Menni Alexandra-Eleftheria, Shrewsbury Anne, Stavrou George, Paramythiotis Daniel, Michalopoulos Antonios, Kotzampassi Katerina
Department of Surgery, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54636 Thessaloniki, Greece.
Department of Colorectal Surgery, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK.
Diagnostics (Basel). 2024 Aug 19;14(16):1806. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics14161806.
Colorectal surgery for cancer is associated with a high rate of surgical complications, including anastomotic leakage. The ability to predict the risk of leakage early enough seems to be of high value, since it would facilitate the design of personalized treatment and duration of hospitalization. Although different studies present the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR] as having a strong predictive value, there is a discrepancy with respect to which postoperative day is the most reliable. We evaluated a series of NLR values, from the day before surgery up to the POD7, in a cohort of 245 colorectal surgery patients in order to clarify the best predictable score for the identification of the risk of anastomotic leakage. There were 28 patients with leaks. ROC curve analysis of NLR on POD1 indicates that a cut-off point ≥ 7.4 exerts a negative prediction for leakage (AUC 0.881, sensitivity 68.7%, specificity 96.4%, PPV 28.4%, and NPV of 99.3%), thus excluding 150 patients from the risk of leakage. Furthermore, the ROC curve analysis of NLR on POD4 indicates that a cut-off point ≥ 6.5 gives a positive prediction of leakage (AUC 0.698, sensitivity 82.1%, specificity 51.6%, PPV 17.6%, and NPV of 95.6%), thus indicating 52 patients as being at high risk of leakage. Finally, NLR failed to identify five leaks out of twenty-eight. These results strongly indicate the ability of NLR on POD1 to predict patients at low risk of developing a leak and then on POD4 to predict the high-risk patients. This makes our study particularly innovative, in that it enables doctors to concentrate on potential high-risk patients from POD1.
结直肠癌手术会伴随较高的手术并发症发生率,包括吻合口漏。尽早预测吻合口漏风险的能力似乎具有很高的价值,因为这将有助于制定个性化治疗方案和确定住院时长。尽管不同研究表明中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)具有很强的预测价值,但关于术后哪一天的NLR最可靠存在差异。我们评估了245例接受结直肠癌手术患者从术前一天到术后第7天的一系列NLR值,以明确用于识别吻合口漏风险的最佳预测评分。共有28例患者发生吻合口漏。术后第1天NLR的ROC曲线分析表明,截断点≥7.4对吻合口漏具有阴性预测价值(AUC 0.881,敏感性68.7%,特异性96.4%,阳性预测值28.4%,阴性预测值99.3%),从而排除了150例有吻合口漏风险的患者。此外,术后第4天NLR的ROC曲线分析表明,截断点≥6.5对吻合口漏具有阳性预测价值(AUC 0.698,敏感性82.1%,特异性51.6%,阳性预测值17.6%,阴性预测值95.6%),从而确定52例患者为高吻合口漏风险。最后,28例吻合口漏中有5例未被NLR识别出来。这些结果有力地表明,术后第1天的NLR能够预测发生吻合口漏低风险的患者,而术后第4天的NLR能够预测高风险患者。这使得我们的研究具有特别的创新性,因为它能让医生从术后第1天起就关注潜在的高风险患者。
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