Tsuboi Masahito, Sztepanacz Jacqueline, De Lisle Stephen, Voje Kjetil L, Grabowski Mark, Hopkins Melanie J, Porto Arthur, Balk Meghan, Pontarp Mikael, Rossoni Daniela, Hildesheim Laura S, Horta-Lacueva Quentin J-B, Hohmann Niklas, Holstad Agnes, Lürig Moritz, Milocco Lisandro, Nilén Sofie, Passarotto Arianna, Svensson Erik I, Villegas Cristina, Winslott Erica, Liow Lee Hsiang, Hunt Gene, Love Alan C, Houle David
Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
J Evol Biol. 2024 Dec 2;37(12):1413-1432. doi: 10.1093/jeb/voae103.
The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding of how evolution works within and across timescales.
当代种群中观察到的进化动态（微进化）与数百万年时间尺度上的进化（宏观进化）之间的关系一直是一个备受争议的话题。从历史上看，这场争论集中在微进化过程与宏观进化模式之间的不一致性上。在这里，我们描述了一个显著的例外情况：新出现的证据表明，当代种群中的现存变异与表型分化的宏观进化速率通常呈正相关。微进化与宏观进化之间这种明显的一致性是自相矛盾的，因为它与我们之前对表型进化的理解相矛盾，而且迄今为止尚无解释。在这里，我们通过研究这种“可预测性悖论”来探讨跨越进化时间尺度的前景。我们首先解释为什么分化 - 方差相关性是一个悖论，接着进行数据分析以表明这种相关性是跨越从几代到数千万年的广泛时间尺度的普遍现象。然后我们回顾来自数量遗传学、比较形态学、进化发育生物学和古生物学的互补方法，认为它们可以从近期关于可进化性研究的共同视角帮助解决这个悖论。总之，我们推荐一种方法导向，即在跨学科研究项目中使用多种分析框架结合不同类型的短期和长期数据。这样一个项目将增进我们对进化在不同时间尺度内和跨时间尺度如何运作的总体理解。
