Sarif Md Nawaj, Siddiqui Lubna, Islam Md Safikul, Parveen Neha, Saha Monojit, Nasrin Tania, Bera Somnath, Mohibul Sk
Department of Geography, Faculty of Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India.
Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Apr;32(16):10279-10298. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-34723-7. Epub 2024 Aug 29.
Changing the river course in the alluvial plain region is a common phenomenon that may have disastrous consequences. The risk of river bank erosion has increased dramatically during the last few decades. As a result, assessing the river bankline alteration is necessary. The study aims to determine the changes in the bankline in the lower Ganga River. This research presents a novel approach by using the digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) in conjunction with geospatial data to monitor and predict long-term changes in river banks from 1965 to 2017, providing a comprehensive temporal analysis that is unprecedented in this study area. The study analyzes the bankline change along the river Ganga using DSAS using during the elapsed period. An erosion and accretion zonation was conducted based on the rate of bankline change of the river Ganga in the study area. The rate of bankline shifting was quantified using the endpoint rate (EPR) and linear regression rate (LRR) statistics computed using the DSAS model. The east bank of the Ganga in the study area experienced an average erosion of - 41.17 m/year according to the LRR model. Whereas, the west bank eroded an average of - 2.32 m/year between 1965 and 2017. 90.54% of the transect lines recorded erosion at the east bank and 53.69% of the transect lines at the west bank recorded erosion computed with LRR. For the assessment of the impact of river bankline change on the LULC of the study area, the future river banklines for 2027 and 2037 were forecasted. The result shows that by 2027 and 2037 about 133.24 and 147 km of agricultural land and 7.19 and 11.47 km of the built-up area may be affected by river bank erosion respectively. By extending the applications of DSAS and geospatial analytics to encompass predictive and impact assessment capabilities, this study significantly enriches the literature on the management of riverbank erosion and associated land use risks. This research provides important insights that improve river management and planning and enable the formulation of robust strategies to mitigate erosion risks on river banks.
在冲积平原地区改变河道是一种常见现象，可能会带来灾难性后果。在过去几十年中，河岸侵蚀的风险急剧增加。因此，评估河岸线变化是必要的。该研究旨在确定恒河下游河岸线的变化。本研究提出了一种新方法，通过使用数字海岸线分析系统（DSAS）结合地理空间数据，来监测和预测1965年至2017年期间河岸的长期变化，提供了该研究区域前所未有的全面时间分析。该研究使用DSAS分析了恒河沿线在过去一段时间内的河岸线变化。根据研究区域内恒河河岸线变化率进行了侵蚀和淤积分区。使用DSAS模型计算的端点速率（EPR）和线性回归速率（LRR）统计数据对河岸线移动速率进行了量化。根据LRR模型，研究区域内恒河东岸平均每年侵蚀-41.17米。而在1965年至2017年期间，西岸平均每年侵蚀-2.32米。用LRR计算，90.54%的样条线记录到东岸有侵蚀，53.69%的样条线记录到西岸有侵蚀。为了评估河岸线变化对研究区域土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）的影响，预测了2027年和2037年的未来河岸线。结果表明，到2027年和2037年，分别约有133.24公里和147公里的农业用地以及7.19公里和11.47公里建成区可能受到河岸侵蚀影响。通过将DSAS和地理空间分析的应用扩展到包括预测和影响评估能力，本研究显著丰富了关于河岸侵蚀管理和相关土地利用风险的文献。本研究提供了重要见解，有助于改善河流管理和规划，并能够制定强有力的战略来减轻河岸侵蚀风险。
