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具有幂尾的跳跃过程极值统计中的稀有事件。

Rare events in extreme value statistics of jump processes with power tails.

作者信息

Bassanoni Alberto, Vezzani Alessandro, Burioni Raffaella

机构信息

Dipartimento di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche ed Informatiche, Università degli Studi di Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 7/A, 43124 Parma, Italy.

INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Parma, Università degli Studi di Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 7/A, 43124 Parma, Italy.

出版信息

Chaos. 2024 Aug 1;34(8). doi: 10.1063/5.0216439.

DOI:10.1063/5.0216439
PMID:39213014
Abstract

We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big -jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes with power tails statistics, if at a certain time a physical quantity takes on a value much larger than its typical value, this large fluctuation is realized through a single macroscopic jump that exceeds the typical scale of the process by several orders of magnitude. In particular, our estimation focuses on the asymptotic behavior of the tail of the probability distribution of maxima, a fundamental quantity in a wide class of stochastic models used in chemistry to estimate reaction thresholds, in climatology for earthquake risk assessment, in finance for portfolio management, and in ecology for the collective behavior of species. We determine the analytical form of the probability distribution of rare events in the extreme value statistics of three jump processes with power tails: Lévy flights, Lévy walks, and the Lévy-Lorentz gas. For the Lévy flights, we re-obtain through the big-jump approach recent analytical results, extending their validity. For the Lévy-Lorentz gas, we show that the topology of the disordered lattice along which the walker moves induces memory effects in its dynamics, which influences the extreme value statistics. Our results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations.

摘要

我们运用大跳跃原理,研究跳跃分布具有幂尾的随机对称跳跃过程极值统计中的稀有事件。该原理指出,在具有幂尾统计的随机过程中,如果在某一时刻一个物理量取值远大于其典型值,那么这种大波动是通过单个宏观跳跃实现的,该跳跃超出过程的典型尺度几个数量级。特别地,我们的估计聚焦于最大值概率分布尾部的渐近行为,这是化学中用于估计反应阈值、气候学中用于地震风险评估、金融中用于投资组合管理以及生态学中用于物种集体行为的一大类随机模型中的一个基本量。我们确定了具有幂尾的三种跳跃过程( Lévy飞行、Lévy游走和Lévy - 洛伦兹气体)极值统计中稀有事件概率分布的解析形式。对于Lévy飞行,我们通过大跳跃方法重新得到了近期的解析结果,并扩展了其有效性。对于Lévy - 洛伦兹气体,我们表明行走者所沿无序晶格的拓扑结构在其动力学中诱导了记忆效应,这影响了极值统计。我们的结果通过广泛的数值模拟得到了证实。

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