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全球热带和亚热带对流层臭氧趋势及 2005-2020 年卫星和臭氧探空仪测量得出的辐射强迫。

Global tropical and extra-tropical tropospheric ozone trends and radiative forcing deduced from satellite and ozonesonde measurements for the period 2005-2020.

机构信息

CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India.

CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India.

出版信息

Environ Pollut. 2024 Nov 15;361:124869. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124869. Epub 2024 Aug 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124869
PMID:39218198
Abstract

Tropospheric ozone (TPO) is considered as a "near-term climate forcer", whose impact on climate depends on its radiative forcing (RF), which is a change in the Earth's energy flux. Here, we use the ground-based and satellite measurements during the period 2005-2020 to deduce the trends of TPO, which is significantly positive in the tropical and extra-tropical northern hemisphere (0.2-0.5 DU/yr) and southern extra-tropics (0.1-0.2 DU/yr). Furthermore, the trends derived using a multiple linear regression model (MLR) also confirm these estimates, which are about 0.05-0.1 DU/yr and the regions with higher trends (>0.06 DU/yr) are statistically significant. We also use a standalone Rapid Radiative Transfer Model coupled with a convective model (Radiative-Convective Model; RCM) to assess the climate forcing of ozone using its vertical profiles from the Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis (MERRA)-2 reanalysis. The estimated temperature rise due to the radiative forcing of ozone in the tropical troposphere (1000-100 hPa) is about 0.2-0.3 °C for the study period. In brief, there is a positive trend in the tropospheric ozone in the tropics and extra-tropics, which is a great concern for regional warming, public health and ecosystem dynamics.

摘要

对流层臭氧(TPO)被认为是一种“短期气候致变物”,其对气候的影响取决于其辐射强迫(RF),即地球能量通量的变化。在这里,我们使用 2005-2020 年期间的地基和卫星测量来推断 TPO 的趋势,在热带和北亚热带(0.2-0.5 DU/yr)以及南亚热带(0.1-0.2 DU/yr),TPO 的趋势明显为正。此外,使用多元线性回归模型(MLR)得出的趋势也证实了这些估计,约为 0.05-0.1 DU/yr,且趋势较高(>0.06 DU/yr)的区域具有统计学意义。我们还使用独立的快速辐射传输模型与对流模型(辐射对流模型;RCM),利用现代回顾再分析(MERRA-2 再分析)中的臭氧垂直廓线评估臭氧的气候强迫。在热带对流层(1000-100 hPa),由于臭氧辐射强迫引起的温度升高估计在研究期间约为 0.2-0.3°C。简而言之,热带和亚热带地区的对流层臭氧呈正趋势,这对区域变暖、公共健康和生态系统动态构成了重大关切。

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