Research on prediction method of coal mining surface subsidence based on MMF optimization model.

Coal seam mining causes fracture and movement of overlying strata in goaf, and endangers the safety of surface structures and underground pipelines. Based on the engineering geological conditions of 22,122 working face in Cuncaota No.2 Coal Mine of China Shenhua Shendong Coal Group Co., Ltd. a similar material model test of mining overburden rock was carried out. The subsidence of overburden rock was obtained through the full-section strain data of distributed optical fiber technology, and the characteristics of mining surface subsidence were studied. The Weibull model was used to adjust the mathematical form of the first half of the surface subsidence curve via the MMF function. On this basis, the prediction model of coal seam mining surface subsidence was established, and the parameters of the prediction model of surface subsidence were determined. The test results show that with the advancement of coal seam mining, the fit goodness of the surface subsidence prediction curve based on the MMF optimization model reaches 0.987. Compared with the measured values, the relative error of the surface subsidence prediction model is reduced to less than 10%. The model displays good prediction accuracy. The time required for settlement stability in the prediction model is positively correlated with parameter a and negatively correlated with parameter b. The research results can be further extended to the prediction of overburden "three zones" subsidence, and provide a scientific basis for the evaluation of surface subsidence compression potential in coal mine goaf.