Department of Industrial Engineering and Center for Finance and Technology, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
HSBC Business School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Sep 6;19(9):e0309483. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309483. eCollection 2024.
Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market's reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.
住房市场通常具有价格泡沫的特点，政府制定了稳定价格的政策。在这种情况下，本研究提出了以下问题。（1）政策收紧是否改变了房价预期，是否出现了制度变化？（2）如果是，是什么决定了住房市场对政策收紧的反应？为了回答这些问题，我们考察了 2016 年在中国发生的政策收紧对房价持续上涨的 2000 年后时期的中国住房市场的影响。我们使用对数周期幂律模型，并采用改进的多群体遗传算法进行参数估计，发现中国的紧缩政策并没有导致市场崩溃，而是将中国住房市场从超指数增长转变为软着陆。我们将这种制度转变归因于中国住房市场对全球干扰的低敏感性。我们的研究结果表明，政府政策在实施时可以帮助稳定房价并改善市场条件。此外，政策制定者在管理房价泡沫时，应该考虑为可能出现的经济危机和其他社会需求（例如住房可负担性）做好准备，以实现整体社会福利。
