Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa.
Pan Afr Med J. 2024 Apr 25;47:211. doi: 10.11604/pamj.2024.47.211.39015. eCollection 2024.
blood centres are often faced with the problem of donor lapsing resulting in loss of donors from the already strained donor pool. In Zimbabwe, 70% of the donated blood comes from younger donors aged 40 years and below, who at the same time, have high attrition rates. This study seeks to apply the concept of survival analysis in analysing blood donor lapsing rates.
in analysing the donor lapsing and retention rates, data on 450 first-time blood donors at the National Blood Service Zimbabwe, in Harare´s blood bank for the period 2014 to 2017 was extracted from the donors´ database. The Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) and Kaplan-Meier methods were applied in the analysis. Donor demographic characteristics suspected of having effect on donor lapsing and retention were identified and analysed.
the study findings show that 56.9% of the donors had lapsed by the end of the four-year study period. Results from the multiple Cox PH model indicate that donor age had a significant effect on blood donor retention time (p = 0.000918 < 0.05). The hazard ratio (HR) = 0.615 with 95% CI: (0.461; 0.820) shows that the relatively older donors had a lower hazard (38.5% lower) of lapsing compared to the hazard for younger donors. The effect of gender, blood donor group and donation time interval on donor retention and attrition were not statistically significant. Male donors had HR = 1.03; 95% CI (0.537; 1.99) with (p = 0.922 > 0.05) and donors with a 4-month interval between donations had HR = 1.31; 95% CI (0.667; 2.59) with (p = 0.430 > 0.05).
the study confirmed the problem of donor attrition faced by blood centres. The age of the donor had a significant effect on the retention time of blood donors before lapsing. The older the blood donor, the lower the risk of lapsing. The Zimbabwe National Blood Service (NBSZ) Blood Centre authorities should have a critical mass of individuals above 40 years as potential blood donors because of their reliability in blood donation according to the study findings.
血站经常面临献血者流失的问题，导致本已紧张的献血者群体流失。在津巴布韦，70%的献血来自 40 岁及以下的年轻献血者，而这些献血者的流失率很高。本研究旨在应用生存分析的概念来分析献血者流失率。
为分析献血者流失和保留率，本研究从津巴布韦国家血液服务中心哈雷雷血液库的献血者数据库中提取了 2014 年至 2017 年期间 450 名首次献血者的数据。应用 Cox 比例风险（Cox PH）和 Kaplan-Meier 方法进行分析。确定并分析了可能影响献血者流失和保留的献血者人口统计学特征。
研究结果表明，在四年的研究期间结束时，有 56.9%的献血者流失。多变量 Cox PH 模型的结果表明，献血者年龄对献血者保留时间有显著影响（p = 0.000918 < 0.05）。风险比（HR）= 0.615，95%置信区间（0.461；0.820）表明，相对较年长的献血者流失的风险较低（低 38.5%），与年轻献血者的风险相比。性别、献血者群体和献血间隔时间对献血者保留和流失的影响没有统计学意义。男性献血者的 HR = 1.03；95%置信区间（0.537；1.99），（p = 0.922 > 0.05），间隔 4 个月献血的献血者的 HR = 1.31；95%置信区间（0.667；2.59），（p = 0.430 > 0.05）。
该研究证实了血站面临的献血者流失问题。献血者的年龄对献血者在流失前的保留时间有显著影响。献血者年龄越大，流失的风险越低。根据研究结果，津巴布韦国家血液服务中心（NBSZ）血液中心当局应拥有大量 40 岁以上的个体作为潜在的献血者，因为他们在献血方面的可靠性。
