Perspect Biol Med. 2024;67(3):386-405. doi: 10.1353/pbm.2024.a936217.
Surprisingly, the 1977 "Russian flu" H1N1 pandemic influenza virus was genetically indistinguishable from strains that had circulated decades earlier but had gone extinct in 1957. This essay puts forward the most plausible chronology to explain the reemergence of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic virus: (1) in January-February 1976, a self-limited small outbreak of a swine H1N1 influenza virus occurred among Army personnel at Fort Dix, New Jersey; (2) in March 1976, the US launched a nationwide H1N1 swine influenza vaccine program; (3) other countries then also launched their own H1N1 R&D efforts; (4) a new H1N1 outbreak, genetically unrelated to the Fort Dix swine virus but indistinguishable from previously extinct H1N1 viruses, was detected early in 1977 in China; (5) the leading Chinese influenza virologist later disclosed that the Chinese military had conducted large H1N1 vaccine R&D studies in 1976. It is likely that the resurrected H1N1 influenza viruses were laboratory-stored strains that were unfrozen and studied as part of the emergency response to a perceived epidemic threat, and that accidentally escaped. The fear of a possible H1N1 pandemic was the critical factor that gave rise to the actual H1N1 pandemic, resulting in an avoidable "self-fulfilling prophecy pandemic."
令人惊讶的是，1977 年“俄罗斯流感”H1N1 大流行流感病毒在遗传学上与几十年前流行但在 1957 年已灭绝的菌株无法区分。本文提出了最合理的年代表来解释 1977 年 H1N1 大流行病毒的重新出现：（1）1976 年 1-2 月，新泽西州迪克斯堡的陆军人员中发生了猪 H1N1 流感病毒的自限性小暴发；（2）1976 年 3 月，美国启动了全国性的 H1N1 猪流感疫苗计划；（3）其他国家随后也启动了自己的 H1N1 研发工作；（4）1977 年初在中国检测到了一种新的 H1N1 暴发，其与迪克斯堡猪病毒在遗传学上无关，但与已灭绝的 H1N1 病毒无法区分；（5）后来，中国流感病毒学家透露，中国军方在 1976 年进行了大规模的 H1N1 疫苗研发研究。复活的 H1N1 流感病毒很可能是实验室储存的菌株，这些菌株在作为对感知到的流行威胁的应急反应的一部分而解冻并进行了研究，并且意外逃脱了。对可能发生 H1N1 大流行的恐惧是导致实际 H1N1 大流行的关键因素，导致了可避免的“自我实现的预言大流行”。
