CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center, Qingdao, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 25;953:176138. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176138. Epub 2024 Sep 10.
In an era marked by unprecedented anthropogenic change, marine systems are increasingly subjected to interconnected and dynamic external stressors, which profoundly reshape the behavior and resilience of marine ecological components. Nevertheless, despite widespread recognition of the significance of stressor interactions, there persist notable knowledge deficits in quantifying their interactions and the specific biological consequences that result. To bridge this crucial gap, this research detected and examined the causal relationships between five key exogenous stressors in a complex estuarine ecosystem. Furthermore, a Bayesian Hierarchical Spatio-temporal modeling framework was proposed to quantitatively evaluate the distinct, interactive, and globally sensitive effects of multiple stressors on the population dynamics of a crucial fish species: Harpadon nehereus. The results showed that interactions were detected between fisheries pressure (FP), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), runoff volume (RV), and sediment load (SL), with five of these interactions producing significant synergistic effects on H. nehereus biomass. The SLPDO and RVPDO interactions had positive synergistic effects, albeit through differing processes. The former interaction amplified the individual effects of each stressor, while the latter reversed the direction of the original impact. Indeed overall, the synergistic effect of multiple stressors was not favorable, with FP in particular posing the greatest threat to H. nehereus population. This threat was more pronounced at high SL or negative PDO phases. Therefore, local management efforts aimed at addressing multiple stressors and protecting resources should consider the findings. Additionally, although the velocity of climate change (VoCC) failed to produce significant interactions, changes in this stressor had the most sensitive impacts on the response of H. nehereus population. This research strives to enhance the dimensionality, generalizability, and flexibility of the quantification framework for marine multi-stressor interactions, aiming to foster broader research collaboration and jointly tackle the intricate pressures facing marine ecosystems.
在一个人类活动前所未有的变革时代，海洋系统越来越受到相互关联和动态的外部胁迫的影响，这些胁迫深刻地改变了海洋生态组成部分的行为和恢复力。尽管人们普遍认识到胁迫相互作用的重要性，但在量化它们的相互作用以及由此产生的特定生物学后果方面，仍然存在明显的知识缺陷。为了弥合这一关键差距，本研究在一个复杂的河口生态系统中检测并检验了五个关键外源胁迫之间的因果关系。此外，还提出了一个贝叶斯分层时空建模框架，以定量评估多种胁迫对关键鱼类物种哈氏仿对鱼种群动态的独特、交互和全球敏感影响。结果表明，渔业压力（FP）、太平洋十年涛动指数（PDO）、径流量（RV）和泥沙负荷（SL）之间存在相互作用，其中五个相互作用对哈氏仿对鱼生物量产生了显著的协同效应。SLPDO 和 RVPDO 相互作用具有正协同效应，尽管作用过程不同。前者相互作用放大了每个胁迫的单独影响，而后者则改变了原始影响的方向。事实上，多种胁迫的协同效应并不有利，尤其是 FP 对哈氏仿对鱼种群构成了最大威胁。在 SL 较高或 PDO 为负的阶段，这种威胁更为明显。因此，旨在解决多种胁迫和保护资源的地方管理工作应考虑到这些发现。此外，尽管气候变化速度（VoCC）未能产生显著的相互作用，但该胁迫的变化对哈氏仿对鱼种群响应的影响最为敏感。本研究旨在提高海洋多胁迫相互作用量化框架的维度、通用性和灵活性，以促进更广泛的研究合作，共同应对海洋生态系统面临的复杂压力。
