State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Nov 25;953:176219. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176219. Epub 2024 Sep 13.
African ecosystems are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, making it crucial to understand these changes for effective management. We provide a framework and application to assess ecoregional vulnerability to climate change, considering environmental exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We assessed environmental exposure using projections for consecutive dry days, precipitation, and temperature changes. Sensitivity was determined based on forest fragmentation and grassland degradation. Adaptive capacity was represented by protected areas network and biodiversity intactness. These factors were combined to create overall vulnerability index and specific categories to guide management decisions. Under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, 16 % of ecoregions will be highly impacted by 2050, with vulnerable areas emerging in Montane forest-grassland and flooded savanna. Impacted ecoregions are disproportionately biodiverse. By intersecting the likely climate impacts and adaptive capacity, we highlight where conservation actions are needed to enhance the resilience of ecoregions to climate change.
非洲生态系统预计将受到气候变化的重大影响，因此了解这些变化对于有效管理至关重要。我们提供了一个框架和应用程序，用于评估生态区域对气候变化的脆弱性，同时考虑环境暴露、敏感性和适应能力。我们使用连续干旱日、降水和温度变化的预测来评估环境暴露。敏感性是根据森林破碎化和草原退化来确定的。适应能力由保护区网络和生物多样性完整性来代表。这些因素结合起来创建了整体脆弱性指数和特定类别，以指导管理决策。在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，到 2050 年，16%的生态区域将受到高度影响，山区森林-草原和洪泛草原将出现脆弱区域。受影响的生态区域的生物多样性不成比例。通过交叉可能的气候影响和适应能力，我们突出了需要采取保护行动的地方，以增强生态区域对气候变化的弹性。
