A Bayesian inference model can predict the effects of attention on the serial dependence in heading estimation from optic flow.

It has been demonstrated that observers can accurately estimate their self-motion direction (i.e., heading) from optic flow, which can be affected by attention. However, it remains unclear how attention affects the serial dependence in the estimation. In the current study, participants conducted two experiments. The results showed that the estimation accuracy decreased when attentional resources allocated to the heading estimation task were reduced. Additionally, the estimates of currently presented headings were biased toward the headings of previously seen headings, showing serial dependence. Especially, this effect decreased (increased) when the attentional resources allocated to the previously (currently) seen headings were reduced. Furthermore, importantly, we developed a Bayesian inference model, which incorporated attention-modulated likelihoods and qualitatively predicted changes in the estimation accuracy and serial dependence. In summary, the current study shows that attention affects the serial dependence in heading estimation from optic flow and reveals the Bayesian computational mechanism behind the heading estimation.