Long-term contributions of VOC sources and their link to ozone pollution in Bronx, New York City.

Changes in energy and environmental policies along with changes in the energy markets of New York State over the past two decades, have spurred interest in evaluating their impacts on emissions from various energy generation sectors. This study focused on quantifying these effects on VOC (volatile organic compounds) emissions and their subsequent impacts on air quality within the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. NYC is an EPA nonattainment region for ozone (O) and likely is a VOC limited region. NYC has a complex coastal topography and meteorology with low-level jets and sea/bay/land breeze circulation associated with heat waves, leading to summertime O exceedances and formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). To date, no comprehensive source apportionment studies have been done to understand the contributions of local and long-range sources of VOCs in this area. This study applied an improved Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) methodology designed to incorporate atmospheric dispersion and photochemical reaction losses of VOCs to provide improved apportionment results. Hourly measurements of VOCs were obtained from a Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station located at an urban site in the Bronx from 2000 to 2021. The study further explores the role of VOC sources in O and SOA formation and leverages advanced machine learning tools, XGBoost and SHAP algorithms, to identify synergistic interactions between sources and provided VOC source impacts on ambient O concentrations. Isoprene demonstrated a substantial influence in the source contribution of the biogenic factor, emphasizing its role in O formation. Notable contributions from anthropogenic emissions, such as fuel evaporation and various industrial processes, along with significant traffic-related sources that likely contribute to SOA formation, underscore the combined impact of natural and human-made sources on O pollution. Findings of this study can assist regulatory agencies in developing appropriate policy and management initiatives to control O pollution in NYC.