Urban road BC emissions of LDGVs: Machine learning models using OBD/PEMS data.

Urban Black Carbon (BC) emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) are challenging to quantify in real-world settings. This study employed a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS) to assess BC emissions from five LDGVs on urban roads. We also developed five machine learning (ML) models based on On-Board Diagnostics (OBD) data to predict BC emissions. Among these, the Random Forest (RF) model consistently demonstrates the best ability to predict BC emissions across all tested LDGVs, with R values exceeding 0.6. Integrating OBD-based ML models within vehicles could enable real-time BC monitoring and aid emission reduction strategies. We observed a strong correlation between BC emissions and engine parameters, such as engine speed and load (R values between 0.5 and 0.9). Furthermore, China VI standard-compliant LDGVs showed minor differences in BC emissions across urban road types. Vehicles equipped with gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines registered BC emission factors (EFs) of 0.141 ± 0.038 mg/km, an increase of 23.7% compared to their port fuel injection (PFI) counterparts, which averaged 0.114 ± 0.049 mg/km.