Zeng Siqing, Xiao Jianpeng, Yang Fen, Dai Jiya, Zhang Meng, Zhong Haojie
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China.
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 15;10(17):e36413. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36413. eCollection 2024 Sep 15.
The prevention and control of dengue fever (DF) has been a major public health issue in Guangdong (GD) province, China. This study aims to analyze the return period (RP) and the return level (RL) of DF epidemic in GD, to help the formulation of prevention and control plan.
Three models, namely Lognormal distribution (Lognor D.), normal distribution (Norm D.), and generalized logistic distribution (GLD) were selected to fit the annual number of indigenous DF cases in GD from 1978 to 2021. The coefficient of determination (R), the root mean squared error (RMSE), and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to evaluate the goodness of fit. We predicted the RP of 45130 historical maximum cases that occurred in 2014 and the RP of 4884 peak cases that occurred in 2019 over the 5 years up to 2021.
Fitting through the three models, the R was 0.98, 0.98, and 0.96, respectively. The predicted RLs of the annual DF case number were between 297 and 43234, 297 and 43233, 362 and 41868 for the RPs of 2-45 years. The predicted RPs of DF outbreaks exceeding the historical maximum were 43, 43, and 44 years, and the RPs of DF epidemic exceeding the peak in 2019 were 7, 7, and 8 years, respectively. Therefore, we predicted that GD would experience a DF outbreak beyond the historical maximum in the next 35 or 36 years from 2022. And in the next 4 or 5 years from 2022, there would be a DF epidemic exceeding the peak in 2019.
The study discloses a temporal periodicity inherent to the DF epidemic in GD. The three models are applicable for forecasting and evaluating the RP and RL of DF epidemic in GD, separately.
登革热（DF）的预防与控制一直是中国广东省的一个主要公共卫生问题。本研究旨在分析广东省登革热疫情的重现期（RP）和重现水平（RL），以协助制定防控计划。
选取对数正态分布（Lognor D.）、正态分布（Norm D.）和广义逻辑分布（GLD）三种模型，对1978年至2021年广东省本地登革热病例的年发病数进行拟合。采用决定系数（R）、均方根误差（RMSE）和赤池信息准则（AIC）评估拟合优度。我们预测了2014年发生的45130例历史最高病例以及截至2021年的5年中2019年发生的4884例高峰病例的重现期。
通过三种模型拟合，R分别为0.98、0.98和0.96。对于2至45年的重现期，登革热病例年发病数的预测重现水平在297至43234、297至43233、362至41868之间。超过历史最高值的登革热暴发的预测重现期分别为43年、43年和44年，超过2019年高峰的登革热疫情的重现期分别为7年、7年和8年。因此，我们预测从2022年起，未来35或36年广东省将发生超过历史最高值的登革热暴发。从2022年起的未来4或5年，将出现超过2019年高峰的登革热疫情。
该研究揭示了广东省登革热疫情固有的时间周期性。这三种模型分别适用于预测和评估广东省登革热疫情的重现期和重现水平。
