Variation in nest survival of three species of tropical plovers in Madagascar with clutch size, age of nest, year and El Niño effect.

A combination of life history traits and environmental conditions has been highlighted as the main drivers of avian breeding success. While drivers of breeding success are well known in some species, especially birds in northern, temperate regions; species in other parts of the world have received relatively little attention. In this study, we used a long-term dataset on breeding success of tropical plovers from south-west Madagascar to investigate whether nest survival changed over time and whether the drivers of nest survival were similar for multiple species breeding in the same arid habitat. In the 12-year period of 2009-2020, we monitored 2077 nests for three species with different breeding strategies: 1185 nests of Kittlitz's plovers () with a flexible breeding strategy and uniparental care; and 565 nests of white-fronted plovers () and 327 nests of Madagascar plovers () which both have biparental care. We found that nest survival was associated with a combination of clutch-size, age of nest and year among the three plover species. In addition, annual variation in climatic conditions associated with El Niño/La Niña events were included in the most supported survival models for Kittlitz's and white-fronted plovers, but the effects were not significant. Overall estimates of daily nest survival were similar for all three species: Kittlitz's plover: 0.950 ± 0.002 SE, Madagascar plover: 0.919 ± 0.007 SE, and white-fronted plover: 0.862 ± 0.047 SE. Estimates of nest success for the breeding season, based on increases in daily nest survival with the clutch age during the incubation periods (26 days for Kittlitz's plovers and 29 days for Madagascar and white-fronted plovers), were relatively low: Kittlitz's plover: 0.161 ± 0.056 SE, Madagascar plover: 0.287 ± 0.022 SE, and white-fronted plover: 0.228 ± 0.019 SE. All three species had a combination of factors affecting nest survival, both environmental and life history traits.