Gorny Alexander Wilhelm, Prakaash Suriya, Neo Jia Wei, Chow Weien, Yeo Khung Keong, Yap Jonathan, Müller-Riemenschneider Falk
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University Singapore, Singapore.
Centre of Excellence for Soldier Performance, Singapore Armed Forces, Singapore.
BMJ Open Sport Exerc Med. 2024 Aug 7;10(3):e001986. doi: 10.1136/bmjsem-2024-001986. eCollection 2024.
Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in young adulthood is a determinant of chronic disease risk. To better understand whether CRF might also behave as a modifiable risk factor, we examined the associations between longitudinal changes in 2.4 km run times and health outcomes in a cohort of healthy young men.
Our dataset comprised individual run times and health outcomes captured in four national registries. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between baseline run times and relative hazards of first major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Relative hazards associated with longitudinal change in run times were estimated using models that were adjusted for run-time at baseline.
The study sample comprised 148 825 healthy men ages 18-34 years who had undergone at least two routine fitness tests that were 5-9 years apart. During 1 294 778 person-years of follow-up, we observed 1275 first MACE and 764 ACM events occurring at mean ages of 43.2 (SD 6.0) years and 39.2 (SD 6.6) years, respectively. A 1% increase in run-time per annum was associated with a 1.13 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.16) times greater hazard of first MACE and a 1.06 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.10) times greater hazard of ACM. The association between longitudinal change in run times and first MACE was preserved in sensitivity analyses using models adjusted for body mass index at baseline.
Among men under the age of 35 years, longitudinal change in run times was associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease two decades onwards.
青年时期的心肺适能（CRF）是慢性病风险的一个决定因素。为了更好地理解CRF是否也可能作为一个可改变的风险因素，我们在一组健康年轻男性队列中研究了2.4公里跑步时间的纵向变化与健康结果之间的关联。
我们的数据集包括四个国家登记处记录的个人跑步时间和健康结果。使用Cox比例风险模型来研究基线跑步时间与首次重大不良心血管事件（MACE）和全因死亡率（ACM）的相对风险之间的关联。使用对基线跑步时间进行调整的模型来估计与跑步时间纵向变化相关的相对风险。
研究样本包括148825名年龄在18 - 34岁之间的健康男性，他们至少接受了两次间隔5 - 9年的常规体能测试。在1294778人年的随访期间，我们分别观察到1275例首次MACE事件和764例ACM事件，发生的平均年龄分别为43.2（标准差6.0）岁和39.2（标准差6.6）岁。每年跑步时间增加1%与首次MACE的风险增加1.13（95%置信区间1.10至1.16）倍以及ACM的风险增加1.06（95%置信区间1.02至1.10）倍相关。在使用对基线体重指数进行调整的模型的敏感性分析中，跑步时间的纵向变化与首次MACE之间的关联得以保留。
在35岁以下的男性中，跑步时间的纵向变化与二十年后的心血管疾病风险相关。
