Mater Dei Hospital, Malta.
National Statistics Office, Malta.
Acta Medica (Hradec Kralove). 2024;67(1):21-25. doi: 10.14712/18059694.2024.15.
The sex ratio at birth (male/total births, M/T) is expected to approximate 0.515. M/T is influenced by many factors including stress. Both World Wars have been implicated as influencing birth rates and M/T. This study was carried out to analyse the effects of two World Wars on Belgium vis-à-vis missing births as well as M/T changes.
Belgian male and female births were available for 1830-2019 and annual population was available from Statista. ARIMA models were used to estimate and project birth losses. The effect of wars was assumed to begin in the years following the commencement of each war and extend to the year after cessation of hostilities i.e., 1915-1919 and 1940-1946 for the First and Second World Wars respectively.
This study included 27,346,178 live births for 1830-2019, M/T 0.5124. There was a decreasing trend in births for 1830-2019, significant for 1950-2019. There were dips in births in association with both Wars resulting in over 440,000 missing births, 3.80% of the Belgian population for the First World War and 1.91% for the Second World War. M/T rose non-significantly for the First World War and significantly for the Second World War.
The declining birth rate and M/T in developed countries is a recognised phenomenon. The missing births in relation to wars are of demographic importance but are often overlooked with emphasis usually on casualties and deaths. M/T may rise in wars, possibly due to increased coital activity as well as other factors.
出生性别比（男性/总出生人数，M/T）预计接近 0.515。M/T 受到许多因素的影响，包括压力。两次世界大战都被认为影响了出生率和 M/T。这项研究旨在分析两次世界大战对比利时的影响，包括失踪出生人数以及 M/T 变化。
比利时男性和女性的出生人数可追溯至 1830 年至 2019 年，人口数据可从 Statista 获取。使用 ARIMA 模型来估计和预测出生人数损失。假设战争的影响始于战争开始后的年份，并持续到敌对行动结束后的一年，即第一次世界大战为 1915-1919 年，第二次世界大战为 1940-1946 年。
这项研究包括 1830 年至 2019 年的 27346178 例活产，M/T 为 0.5124。1830 年至 2019 年的出生人数呈下降趋势，1950 年至 2019 年的下降趋势显著。两次战争都导致出生人数下降，导致超过 44 万例失踪出生，占第一次世界大战期间比利时人口的 3.80%，占第二次世界大战期间人口的 1.91%。M/T 在前一次世界大战中略有上升，在后一次世界大战中显著上升。
出生率和 M/T 在发达国家下降是一种公认的现象。与战争有关的失踪出生具有人口统计学意义，但通常被忽视，而重点通常放在伤亡和死亡人数上。M/T 在战争中可能上升，可能是由于性行为增加以及其他因素所致。
