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气候变化情景下的泥沙负荷评估以及气候学家与环境建模者之间缺乏整合。

Sediment load assessments under climate change scenarios and a lack of integration between climatologists and environmental modelers.

作者信息

Szalińska Ewa, Orlińska-Woźniak Paulina, Wilk Paweł, Jakusik Ewa, Skalák Petr, Wypych Agnieszka, Arnold Jeff

机构信息

AGH University of Krakow, A. Mickiewicza Av. 30, 30-059, Kraków, Poland.

Institute of Meteorology and Water, Management - National Research Institute, Podleśna 61, 01-673, Warsaw, Poland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 17;14(1):21727. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-72699-z.

Abstract

Increasing precipitation accelerates soil erosion and boosts sediment loads, especially in mountain catchments. Therefore, there is significant pressure to deliver plausible assessments of these phenomena on a local scale under future climate change scenarios. Such assessments are primarily drawn from a combination of climate change projections and environmental model simulations, usually performed by climatologists and environmental modelers independently. Our example shows that without communication from both groups the final results are ambiguous. Here, we estimate sediment loads delivered from a Carpathian catchment to a reservoir to illustrate how the choice of meteorological data, reference period, and model ensemble can affect final results. Differences in future loads could reach up to even 6000 tons of sediment per year. We suggest there must be a better integration between climatologists and environmental modelers, focusing on introducing multi-model ensembles targeting specific impacts to facilitate an informed choice on climate information.

摘要

降水增加会加速土壤侵蚀并增加沉积物负荷,尤其是在山区集水区。因此,在未来气候变化情景下,在地方尺度上对这些现象进行合理评估面临巨大压力。此类评估主要来自气候变化预测和环境模型模拟的结合,通常由气候学家和环境建模人员独立进行。我们的例子表明,如果两组人员之间缺乏沟通,最终结果将含糊不清。在这里,我们估算了从喀尔巴阡集水区输送到水库的沉积物负荷,以说明气象数据、参考期和模型集合的选择如何影响最终结果。未来负荷的差异每年可能高达6000吨沉积物。我们建议气候学家和环境建模人员之间必须有更好的整合,重点是引入针对特定影响的多模型集合,以便在气候信息方面做出明智选择。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3f12/11408629/28cf906cb62c/41598_2024_72699_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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