Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting microvascular invasion and evaluating the efficacy of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization.

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Accurately predicting microvascular invasion (MVI) before surgery is beneficial for surgical decision-making, and some high-risk hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients may benefit from postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE). The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting MVI and assessing the survival benefits of selectively receiving PA-TACE in HCC patients.

METHODS

The 1372 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy at four medical institutions were randomly divided into training and validation datasets according to a 7:3 ratio. We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting MVI using preoperative clinical data and further evaluated the survival benefits of selective PA-TACE in different risk subgroups.

RESULTS

The nomogram for predicting MVI integrated alpha-fetoprotein, tumor diameter, tumor number, and tumor margin, with an area under the curve of 0.724, which was greater than that of any single predictive factor. The calibration curve, decision curve, and clinical impact curve demonstrated that the nomogram had strong predictive performance. Risk stratification based on the nomogram revealed that patients in the low-risk group did not achieve better DFS and OS with PA-TACE (all p > 0.05), while patients in the medium-to-high risk groups could benefit from higher DFS (Medium-risk, p = 0.039; High-risk, p = 0.027) and OS (Medium-risk, p = 0.001; High-risk, p = 0.019) with PA-TACE.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram predicting MVI demonstrated strong predictive performance, and its risk stratification aided in identifying different subgroups of HCC patients who may benefit from PA-TACE with improved survival outcomes.