Unravelling a hidden synergy: How pathogen-climate interactions transform habitat hydrology and affect tree growth.

Interactions between multiple global change stressors are a defining characteristic of the Anthropocene. Tree-associated pathogens are affecting forested ecosystems worldwide and occur in the context of increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. The effects of these events, along with subsequent changes in environmental conditions, on remaining and regenerating trees, are not well understood but crucial for the restoration and conservation of forested habitats. In this study, we investigate ash (Fraxinus excelsior) dieback in a temperate broadleaf woodland as a case study to explore the processes influencing non-infected trees during pathogen-induced mortality events. Utilising an experimental setup, we examine tree growth rates at different chronological stages of the disease, including naturally progressing ash dieback (4-5 years since disease outbreak), accelerated ash dieback where ash trees have been girdled (10-15 years), and negligible ash dieback (<20 % ash trees). During a year with typical climatic conditions (2021), soils in accelerated ash dieback plots remained saturated throughout the summer due to insufficient transpiration (57 % higher in the accelerated dieback plots), suggesting a significantly increased risk of summer run-off and floods. However, tree growth rates in these plots were not affected (t-test, t = -0.3 to 1.2, p > 0.05). Conversely, anomalously dry years, such as the 2022 summer drought, saw higher soil moisture in the accelerated ash dieback plots (t-test, t = 4.8, p < 0.01) acting as a buffer, resulting in normal tree growth during drought compared to greatly reduced growth in plots with weaker dieback. These findings emphasise the complex interactions between extreme climate events and pathogen outbreaks. Better understanding of the relationships between pathogens and hydrology on tree growth is imperative and detailed long-term studies on tree growth and hydrology will facilitate and improve mitigation strategies.